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In the joint study, the two Secretariats provide
an overview of what can be said, and with what degree of confidence, on the
relationship between trade and employment. The joint study distinguishes
itself from other surveys by focusing on the connections between trade
policies and labour and social policies and by bringing together different
streams of literature, for example trade literature, labour market
literature, public finance literature and education literature. The joint
study does not give policy advice but is intended to help policymakers think
about policy design and in particular about trade-offs that might be
implied.
A number of messages from the joint study can be
highlighted, including; that while it has been known for some time that
trade both creates and destroys jobs, according to recent insights in
economic thinking, trade creates and destroys jobs in all sectors involved
in trade – this implies that policymakers cannot simply target import
competing sectors if they wish to assist workers affected by trade-related
job loss; that the changing nature of trade and in particular the role of
offshoring is likely to make it increasingly difficult for policymakers to
predict which jobs are at risk and which jobs will be in demand in the near
future; and, that modern economies need constantly to reallocate resources
but workers value security. On the latter point, while there may be reasons
to believe a trade-off exists between providing insurance for workers
against adverse professional events on the one hand and economic efficiency
on the other, this trade-off apparently does not need to be steep.
Another focus in the joint study concerns
increases in inequality. While trade is often blamed for this phenomenon,
which appears to impact hardest on the low-skilled, there is broad agreement
that in fact technological change and not trade is the main driver of these
increases in inequality. That said, trade is often the vehicle carrying
technology into societies and since technological change is abstract, there
is sometimes a tendency to 'shoot the messenger'. As for the effects of
trade reform on employment and wages particular to developing countries, the
study's main message is that knowledge on this issue is highly incomplete.
This is due to insufficient understanding of what happens in the informal
economy.
A number of points follow clearly from the joint
study: first, that trade policy interacts with other policy areas,
including labour market policy, education policy and redistribution policy;
second, that coherence among these policy fields helps to optimize the
outcomes of trade liberalization in terms of growth and employment and is
likely to have positive effects on public support for trade reform; and,
third, that research to support increased policy coherence could have high
pay-offs.
Book
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Programme
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Opening remarks and
presentation by authors
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Speakers:
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Patrick Low
Director, Economic Research and Statistics
Division, WTO
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Gerry Rodgers
Director, International Institute for Labour Studies, ILO
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Marion Jansen
Counsellor, Economic Research and Statistics Division, WTO
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Eddy Lee
Fellow, International Institute for Labour Studies, ILO
Discussants' comments
Help
Speakers:
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Comments: first discussant
Olivier Cadot
Professor, Université de Lausanne
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Comments: second discussant
C. Trevor Clarke
Ambassador, Permanent Mission of Barbados
to the United Nations
Comments
and Questions
Help
Chair: Gerry Rodgers
Director, International Institute for Labour Studies, ILO

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