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International trade statistics
From January to September trade expanded by 23%,
continuing the recovery that began in the second quarter of 2009. Despite
this positive trend, the value of world trade remains below its peak level
from before the present financial crisis.
These short-term “value” figures should not be confused with the annual
trade growth figures, which are “volume” data using “constant dollars” with
inflation taken into account.
The latest
projection of 13.5% merchandise trade volume growth for 2010, released
on 20 September, remains unchanged for the time being.
WTO short-term merchandise trade values are expressed in “current” US
dollars, ie, they are not adjusted for changes in prices. Nor are they
seasonally adjusted. Seasonal patterns therefore considerably affect the
quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) and month on month (M-o-M) developments in world
trade, and this in turn affects comparisons between the trade developments
in individual regions and economies.
Chart 1: World merchandise exports, first
quarter 2007 to third quarter 2010
Indices, first quarter 2005=100
In the third quarter of 2010, world merchandise exports were about 3% higher than in the second quarter (“quarter on quarter”).
Within that period, available monthly statistics for about 70 economies representing some 90% of world trade show that merchandise trade stagnated in July, decreased in August and bounced back in September 2010.
This pattern is similar, albeit less pronounced, to what had already been observed in 2009 and reflects in good part seasonal variations of demand.
Chart 2: Monthly merchandise trade, aggregate
of 70 economies
Indices, January 2008=100
Overview of regional trade flows
Extra-EU trade (external trade between the EU and the rest of the world) rose considerably faster than trade within the EU, which remained constrained by low economic activity. Asian exports rose by about 30% in the third quarter of 2010, as compared to the corresponding period of 2009.
Exports from Africa and the Middle East were 22% higher than in the corresponding period of 2009 mainly due to the rebound of commodity prices after the crisis.
Table 1: World merchandise trade by region and
selected economies, July-Sept 2010
Percentage change in current US dollars,
year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q)
Exports |
|
Imports |
||
Y-o-Y |
Q-o-Q |
|
Y-o-Y |
Q-o-Q |
18 |
3 |
World (a) |
18 |
4 |
21 |
0 |
North America |
23 |
4 |
20 |
1 |
United States |
23 |
5 |
16 |
-5 |
Canada |
20 |
1 |
22 |
4 |
South and Central America |
34 |
12 |
33 |
12 |
Brazil |
49 |
18 |
7 |
2 |
Europe |
9 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
European Union (27) (b) |
9 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
—intra EU |
4 |
0 |
14 |
6 |
—extra EU |
17 |
6 |
18 |
-1 |
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) |
29 |
13 |
18 |
0 |
Russian Federation |
39 |
17 |
22 |
3 |
Africa and the Middle East |
10 |
5 |
29 |
6 |
Asia (a) |
26 |
5 |
32 |
11 |
China |
27 |
5 |
20 |
2 |
India |
31 |
4 |
28 |
7 |
Japan |
25 |
7 |
25 |
2 |
Six East Asian traders (c) |
26 |
2 |
a. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-exports.
b.
“Intra EU” is trade within the EU; “extra EU” is trade between the EU and
non-EU economies.
c. Hong Kong, China (excluding re-export trade); Republic of Korea;
Malaysia; Singapore; Taipei, Chinese and Thailand.
Chart 3: Commodity price developments,
third quarter 2010
Percentage change
Source: IMF
· Month on month (M-o-M): comparing two consecutive months (not the same months in consecutive years). Similarly for quarter-on-quarter (Q-on-Q).
· Year on year (Y-on-Y): comparing equivalent periods such as quarters, months, sequences of months, etc, in consecutive years, eg, comparing January-September 2010 with January-September 2009.
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