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Panel on Defining the Future of Trade


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Launch of the report — Opening remarks by DG Pascal Lamy

Good morning and welcome to all,

I am very pleased to have with us five members of the panel that I constituted  about one year ago to look at the factors defining the future of trade:  President Mogae,    Talal Abu-Ghazaleh, Pradeep Mehta,       Jurgen Thumann and Sharan Burrow.

They, together with the other seven panellists, have looked at three elements:

  • how trade works for welfare
  • what are the transformational factors shaping international trade in the medium to long term
  • what suggestions they can offer for addressing these challenges.

I want to publicly recognize their engagement and effort in putting together this report.

The greatest value of this report is precisely in the people who have contributed to it; it should not be dismissed without serious consideration since it reflects the experience and expertise of 12 tremendous professionals from different backgrounds, different continents and different expertise but who have in common their strong support for "cooperation over conflict" and for a "rules-based system over the law of the jungle".

This report offers "food for thought" to our members as they think about their medium to long-term trade policies and also about the medium to long-term prospects for this organization.  

The report does not offer quick fixes to conclude the Doha Round; it was not intended to do so. What is says about the Doha Round is that there is a political imperative as well as an economic rationale to conclude it. But many of the issues addressed in the report are of direct relevance to unlocking the Doha Round.

Now, let me briefly address the most salient points in this report before passing the floor to each panellist to give his/her own flavour of this exercise in collective collaboration.

The report has three parts:

Chapter 1 looks into how trade can work for growth, development, jobs and sustainable development. It may sound a bit obvious for many of you but the panel felt it was important to start with placing trade in the broader context of a set of other domestic policies that need to be in place for trade to work; "trade as a means, not as an end" says the report.

Chapter 2 looks into what are the shaping factors of trade for the future:

  • the continuous technological progress which is at the heart of globalization
  • the rise of investment on par with the growth of trade
  • the rise in value chains
  • the rise of emerging countries: South-South trade was 10 per cent of world trade 20 years ago, now it is closer to one-third of world trade
  • the centre of gravity of trade opening is moving South
  • the increase in preferential trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties
  • non-tariff measures as "the" obstacles to trade in the future.

So what to do against this background?

Chapter 3 looks into a set of suggestions they freely offer to the WTO members; I am sure each panellist present here would want to put the emphasis on the elements that are dearer to them.

If I had to capture the essence of their suggestions in one word, that would be "convergence":

  • convergence of the trade regimes of the WTO members, reflective of the evolution of their progressive economic and social development
  • convergence of the non-multilateral regimes with the multilateral trading system
  • convergence between trade and other public policies, i.e. greater coherence in non-tariff measures
  • convergence of trade and other domestic policies, such as education, innovation and social safety nets.

Let me again express my appreciation for their work and now give them the floor to present to you their own views on their report.

 Future of Trade

> The Future of Trade: The Challenges of Convergence
Report of the Panel on Defining the Future of Trade convened by WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy

 

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