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The report recognizes that the impact of trade policy on
annual changes in trade flows is usually difficult to
discern because the reduction of tariff barriers is
implemented over a multi-year period. But the report
points out that in 1999 the bulk of the tariff cuts of
the Uruguay Round were completed. Consequently, the
customs duty collected on imports decreased between 1994
and 1999 by 10 per cent to US$ 39.4 billion for the US,
the EU and Japan, which combined account for nearly one
half of world imports. As their imports increased over
the same period by 40 per cent, the ratio of collected
duties to imports decreased by about one third.For
1999, the report gives detailed figures for merchandise
and commercial services trade by region, by country and
by product category. Among the highlights of the report
are the following:
Highlights
of International Trade back
to top
- Against
the background of the Asian recovery and the
continued strength of demand growth in North
America, global economic output gained momentum
and trade growth, which was sluggish at the
beginning of 1999, accelerated markedly in the
second half. For the year as a whole, the volume
of trade growth in 1999 was 5 per cent, unchanged
from the preceding year.
- World
trade growth in the first half of the year 2000
remained buoyant stimulated by stronger economic
activity in Western Europe and Latin America and
continued high demand growth in North America and
Asia. It is projected that the growth of world
merchandise trade in 2000 will be about 10 per
cent, twice the rate recorded for 1999 and one of
the highest in the last decade. The trade
expansion in 2001 is expected to be somewhat less
than in the current year but still higher than
the average of 6.5 per cent recorded for the
1990-99 period.
- In
1999, the dollar value of world merchandise
exports recovered by 3.5 per cent to US$ 5.47
trillion. Prices of internationally traded goods
decreased by 1.5 per cent in 1999 as the recovery
in fuel prices was more than offset by a further
decline in the prices for agricultural and
manufactured products.
- World
exports of commercial services rose by 1.5 per
cent to US$ 1350 billion in 1999. Trade of travel
services expanded by 2 per cent to US$ 440
billion while exports of transportation and other
commercial services increased by one per cent.
Western Europe's commercial services exports
— which alone account for 47 per cent of the
world total — decreased in 1999 partly due
to the weakness of the Euro vis-à-vis the US
dollar.
- Regional
trade performances differed widely in 1999 for
both merchandise and commercial service trade.
North America and Asia recorded export and import
growth well above the global average. The
transition economies, Latin America and Africa
experienced a contraction of their merchandise
import volume and also a decrease in the value of
their commercial service imports. While the weak
demand in these regions depressed imports,
merchandise exports of Latin America and Africa
rose in value terms faster than global trade.
- Developing
country merchandise exports rose by 9 per cent,
increasing their share in world exports to 27.5
per cent. This higher share was only partly due
to the recovery in fuels trade; a larger world
share for the developing countries could also be
observed for all nine groups of manufactures. The
share of developing countries in world exports of
manufactures reached nearly 25 per cent, a marked
increase since 1990 when it stood at 17 per cent.
- Least-developed
countries merchandise exports in 1999 rose faster
than world exports partly due to the strength of
shipments of fuels. Exports of manufactured goods
to the major developed and developing markets
rose by 5 per cent while those of agricultural
products decreased by 8 per cent. Over the
1990-99 period, the share of manufactured goods
in LDC's exports has increased sharply and
accounted in 1999 for one half of their shipments
to industrial countries.
- Although
trade growth continued to exceed that of output
in 1999, the difference between the two rates was
much smaller than that throughout the 1990-99
period. Developments in the first half 2000
indicate that the shrinkage of this margin in
1999 was only temporary and that trade growth is
surpassing output growth by more than 5
percentage points in the current year. The volume
of merchandise trade growth of 5 per cent
exceeded by only 2.5 percentage points that of
merchandise output in 1999. Trade in fuels and
other minerals fell 4.5 per cent in volume terms
which was a much steeper decline than the
decrease in output of mining products. Trade
continued to expand faster than output for
manufactures and agricultural products but in
both sectors the difference was smaller than on
average in the preceding decade.
- International
capital flows — in particular foreign direct
investment — was again a major determinant
of international trade. Large capital inflows
into the US sustained the large increase of US
imports lifting the US share to 18.5 per cent of
world merchandise imports – historically an
unprecedented level. In the case of Latin
America, large capital flows also played a major
role in the region's import growth which was
twice that of world trade in 1990-98. In 1999,
however, the net-capital inflows declined for the
second year in a row and contributed to the
contraction of imports.
- In
1999, the bulk of the tariff cuts of the Uruguay
Round have been completed resulting in a fall of
collected duties in the major developed markets.
As imports rose at the same time, the ratio of
collected duties to imports fell to a new record
low of 2.5 per cent for the US, 2.3 per cent for
Japan and to 1.7 per cent for the EU.
- Regional
integration agreements can lead to faster trade
growth, in particular intra-regional trade. In
the 1990s, however, the intra-trade of the four
major RIAs combined did not increase faster than
world trade.
- Trade
of regional integration agreements evolved quite
differently in 1999. While intra-NAFTA trade
expanded by 11 per cent in line with the increase
overall, its exports to all other regions
declined. The recession in MERCOSUR countries led
to a contraction of intra-regional trade by one
quarter, while intra-EU trade lagged behind
extra-regional imports. Among the four major
regional integration agreements, only the Asean
grouping recorded an expansion of intra-trade,
which was somewhat in excess of extra-regional
exports.
- In
1999, the value growth of the twelve major
product categories in merchandise trade ranged
from an increase of nearly 20 per cent for fuels
to a decrease of more than 10 per cent for iron
and steel products. While the recovery of fuels
trade has to be attributed entirely to the rise
in prices, the shrinking trade in iron and steel
products is due to a combination of price
declines and lower import demand.
- World
exports of office and telecom equipment rose by
10 per cent to nearly US$ 770 billion. A sharp
rise in the sales of semi-conductors and mobile
phones contributed to this dynamic growth. This
product category comprises the hardware
components of today's revolution in information
technology.
- Exports
of automotive products rose by 5 per cent in 1999
and also therefore at above average rates. The
most dynamic exporters of automotive products in
1999 are not the large traditional producers, but
rather more recent suppliers like Mexico, the
Republic of Korea, the Czech Republic, Hungary
and Poland which expanded their exports by double
digit rates not only in 1999, but also throughout
the 1990-99 period.
- The
decline in world textile exports and the near
stagnation in clothing trade in 1999 are largely
due to weak Western European trade, in particular
intra-regional trade. In a marked contrast,
intra-Asian trade in clothing recovered by 8 per
cent and that of Latin America to North America
rose by 15 per cent. One of the outstanding
features of global trade in clothing is that the
growth of developing Asian exports to North
America and Western Europe is surpassed by the
rise in shipments from Latin America to the North
American market and that of transition economies
to the Western European markets.
Notes
to Editors: back
to top
The
WTO annual report International Trade Statistics
2000 provides comprehensive, comparable and
up-to-date statistics on trade in merchandise and
commercial services for an assessment of world trade
flows by country, region and main product groups or
service categories. Some 240 tables and charts are
depicting trade developments from various perspectives
and providing a number of long-term time series as
additional information. Major trade developments are
summarised and discussed in the first part of the report
under Overview. This volume has been produced by a team
of statisticians from the Statistics Division in
collaboration with the Economic Research and Analysis
Division.
Considerable
efforts were made to secure data reliability, consistency
and comparability through continued checking and
adjustment of primary data. Estimations had also to be
made for missing country/periods in order to arrive at
meaningful aggregates. Where it was not feasible to
adjust for breaks in time-series these are indicated and
explained in the technical notes, which also provide
information on definitions and methods. Acknowledgements
are due to a number of international organisations and
national institutions for providing advance statistics.
International
Trade Statistics 2000 is published in English,
French and Spanish and is available in printed form, on
CD-ROM or through the WTO web site (http://www.wto.org).
Purchase information for hard copy or CD-ROM versions is
available from the WTO online
bookshop. Comments and/or enquiries regarding trade statistics may
be forwarded to the Statistics Division through e-mail at statistics@wto.org.
Further information on merchandise trade statistics may
be obtained from Mr. Wladimir Tislenkoff, Chief
Merchandise Trade Section (Tel: +41 22 7395131, Fax: +41
22 7395763);
information on trade in commercial services may be
obtained from Mr. Guy Karsenty, Chief Trade in Services
Section (Tel: +41 22 7395426, Fax: +41 22 7395763).
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