WTO: 2009 PRESS RELEASES
PRESS/554
WORLD TRADE 2008, PROSPECTS FOR 2009
WTO sees 9% global trade decline in 2009 as recession strikes
This press release has been published in all fairness to other media
ahead of the embargo date of 25 March due to a breach of the embargo
first in Holland by NRC Handelsblad, on its website and in its evening
print edition on 23 March, and following that globally by Bloomberg news
agency.
The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in
decades will drive exports down by roughly 9% in volume terms1
in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War, WTO economists
forecast today. The contraction in developed countries will be particularly
severe with exports falling by 10% this year. In developing countries, which are
far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2%-3% in
2009, WTO economists say.
Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export declines
already posted in the early months of this year by most major economies —
particularly those in Asia — makes for an unusually bleak 2009 trade assessment,
said the WTO in its annual assessment of global trade.
Signs of the sharp deterioration in trade were evident in the latter part of
2008 as demand sagged and production slowed. Although world trade grew by 2% in
volume terms for the whole of 2008 it tapered off in the last six months and was
well down on the 6% volume increase posted in 2007.
“For the last 30 years trade has been an ever increasing part of economic
activity, with trade growth often outpacing gains in output. Production for many
products is sourced around the world so there is a multiplier effect — as demand
falls sharply overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds
available for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade
flows, in particular in developing countries,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy.
“As a consequence, many thousands of trade related jobs are being lost.
Governments must avoid making this bad situation worse by reverting to
protectionist measures which in reality protect no nation and threaten the loss
of more jobs. We are carefully monitoring trade policy developments. The use of
protectionist measures is on the rise. The risk is increasing of such measures
choking off trade as an engine of recovery. We must be vigilant because we know
that restricting imports only leads your trade partner to follow suit and hit
your exports. Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these
economic doldrums. In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite
in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist
measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective,” Mr. Lamy
said.
Financial Crisis Sparks Downturn
Following the dramatic worsening of the financial crisis since September of last
year, real global output growth slowed to 1.7%, compared to 3.5% in 2007, and is
likely to fall by between 1% and 2% in 2009. This is the first decline in total
world production since the 1930s, and its impact is magnified in trade. But WTO
economists warn that the extraordinary turbulence of world markets in recent
months and the continued uncertainty about the near-term trajectory of the
global economy makes gauging the preliminary 2008 trade estimates and 2009
projections unusually difficult.
A notable aspect of the current slowdown in world trade is its synchronized
nature. Monthly exports and imports of major developed and developing economies
have been falling in unison since September 2008 (see Appendix Chart 1). With
the growing share of developing countries’ trade in the global total, and
increased geographical diversification of these flows, it was assumed by some
commentators that a “decoupling” effect would have made developing countries
less vulnerable to economic turmoil in developed countries. This has not turned
out to be the case.
The WTO’s preliminary estimate of 2% growth in world trade volume for 2008 is
substantially lower than the forecast of 4.5% growth issued a year ago. However,
last year’s outlook did identify significant downside risks related to
developments in financial markets. A large part of the explanation for the
over-estimation was the unexpected and very sharp drop in global production in
the fourth quarter of 2008.
Trade prospects for 2009
In projecting trade growth for 2009, we assume a normal pattern for a recession,
where trade falls, remains weak for a time and then resumes its upward
trajectory and begins to return to its previous trend. If this basic scenario
holds, world merchandise trade is likely to fall some 9% in volume terms in 2009
(ie, where price changes have been removed from the calculation), with developed
economy exports falling by some 10% on average and developing country exports
shrinking by 2—3%.
Trade prospects for 2009 are heavily conditioned by the financial crisis that
began almost two years ago in the United States. The crisis intensified
dramatically following the collapse of the Wall Street investment bank Lehman
Brothers in September of last year, and the government-led rescue of a number of
financial institutions in the United States and elsewhere. Turmoil in the
financial sector and acute credit shortages spread inexorably to the real
sector. Declining asset prices, faltering demand and falling production
translated into dramatically reduced and in some cases negative production and
trade growth in many countries. Trade has also been affected adversely by a
sharp shrinkage in credit to finance imports and exports.
Although the crisis began in the United States, financial institutions and
economies throughout the developed and developing world have been severely
affected. The deteriorating economic situation has taken a toll on both consumer
and business confidence, and produced a negative feedback between the financial
sector and the rest of the economy that dominates the outlook for 2009.
The months since last September have seen precipitous drops in global production
and trade, first in the developed economies, then in developing ones as well.
Indexes calculated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) of composite leading indicators for the major industrial economies have
plunged to January 2009, indicating a high probability of a continuing decline
in economic activity. Governments have tried a variety of policy measures to
address the economic crisis, including bailouts for banks that are important for
the economic and financial system, and, more recently, mortgage assistance for
struggling home owners in the United States. All of this is in addition to
monetary and fiscal policies that have been deployed since the start of the
crisis. Conventional monetary policy may be reaching the limits of its
effectiveness, with interest rates in the United States and elsewhere
approaching zero. The timing of the recovery may now depend on how effective are
proposed fiscal stimulus plans, which currently amount to more than 3% of world
production.
Since the recession began to take hold in the fourth quarter of 2008 there has
been little cause for optimism in the outlook for trade in 2009. The financial
crisis has disrupted the normal functioning of the banking system and deprived
firms and individuals of much-needed credit. Falling stock markets and housing
prices have also administered negative shocks to wealth in the United States and
elsewhere, making households unwilling to purchase durable goods such as
automobiles while they attempt to rebuild their savings. Falling commodity
prices, while a boon to consumers in importing countries, have also deprived
oil-producing countries of export revenues.
Not even China, with its dynamic economy, can insulate itself from global
downturn when most of its main trading partners are in recession. China’s
exports to its top six trading partners (treating the EU as a single partner)
represented 70% of the country’s total exports in 2007. All of these trading
partners are currently experiencing economic contraction or slowdown and are
likely to exhibit weak import demand for some time.
Available monthly data for most major traders show large drops in merchandise
exports and imports through the first two months of 2009. An exception to this
pattern of decline in trade flows is discernible for certain economies in Asia,
where positive monthly import growth numbers were recorded for China (17 per
cent) and also for Singapore, Chinese Taipei and Vietnam. While this is only a
single month of data, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously, it could
be evidence of slowing decline and perhaps a “bottoming out” of negative trade
growth trends. Future trade growth will, of course, depend on what happens to
demand elsewhere in the world economy.
Moreover, the question must be asked as to how far trade could conceivably fall
in the months ahead. As an example, consider China’s exports. In February these
were down 26% compared with the same month in the previous year and 28% compared
with January. If one were to extrapolate this downturn, China’s exports would be
approaching zero within ten months to a year. This is obviously a highly
implausible scenario and emphasizes the reality that such steep declines as
those we have witnessed recently will not persist.
The above estimates of trade growth are supported by the results of the WTO
Secretariat’s time series forecasting model which predicts for developed
countries (more precisely, members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development or OECD), a slow-down in imports of goods and services of some
8.5% (technically, “on a balance-of-payments basis”) (Chart 1).
Chart 1: Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2007-2008
% change on a year to year basis
Source: OECD National Accounts.
The estimates are sensitive to the size of the initial drop and to the rate of
recovery. If the drop in world trade is deeper than expected or if recovery
happens more quickly, then the growth forecast will need updating.
Despite the large size of this expected drop in world trade there are still
substantial downside risks to the projection. Further adverse developments in
financial markets could prolong the current crisis, as could a surge in
protection. Recovery could be slower than expected if household consumption does
not return to a more normal growth trend soon.
On the other hand, growth could resume more quickly than expected if reforms to
the financial sector are implemented quickly and credit markets begin to
function more normally. Recessions usually contain the seeds of their own
recovery, as reduced consumption implies increased savings, which is then lent
out to willing borrowers for investment in future production. Unfortunately,
this channel of recovery may be blocked until the world’s banking sector is
repaired.
Reasons for trade contraction
Trade growth data show declines that are larger than in past slow-downs. A
number of factors may explain this.
One is that the fall-off in demand is more widespread than in the past, as all
regions of the world economy are slowing at once.
A second reason for the magnitude of recent declines relates to the increasing
presence of global supply chains in total trade. Trade contraction or expansion
is no longer simply a question of changes in trade flows between a producing
country and a consuming country — goods cross many frontiers during the
production process and components in the final product are counted every time
they cross a frontier. The only way of avoiding this effect — whose aggregate
magnitude can only be guessed at on account of the absence of systematic
information — would be to measure trade transactions on the basis of the value
added at each stage of the production process. Since value-added, or the return
to factors of production, is the real measure of income in the economy, and
trade is a gross flow rather than a measure of income, it follows from the
reasoning above that strong increases or decreases in trade flow numbers should
not be interpreted as an accurate guide to what is actually happening to incomes
and employment.
A third element in current conditions that is likely to contribute to the
contraction of trade is a shortage of trade finance. This has clearly been a
problem and it is receiving particular attention from international institutions
and governments. The WTO has been playing a role as honest broker by bringing
together the key players to work on ensuring the availability and affordability
of trade finance.
A fourth factor that could contribute to trade contraction is protection. Any
rises in protection will threaten the prospects for recovery and prolong the
downturn. The risk of aggravated protectionism is rightly a source of concern
going forward.2
Overview of trade and production developments in 2008
Economic growth
World economic growth — measured by total production, or gross domestic product
(GDP) — slowed abruptly in 2008 against the backdrop of the worst financial
crisis since the 1930s. Weaker demand in developed economies brought about by
falling asset prices and increased economic uncertainty helped pull world output
growth down to 1.7%, from 3.5% a year earlier. Growth in 2008 was the slowest
since 2001 and well below the 10 year average rate of 2.9%.
Developed economies only managed a meagre 0.8% growth during last year, compared
to 2.5% in 2007, and an average rate of 2.2% between 2000 and 2008. Developing
economies, on the other hand, expanded their output in 2008 by 5.6%, down from
7.5% in 2007, but still equal to their average rate for the 2000—08 period.
Oil exporting countries experienced rapid growth of 5.5% on average in 2008,
with exports from the Middle East growing at an even faster rate of 6.3%.
Least-developed countries (LDCs) grew faster than any other group of countries,
at 6.6%, and above their 2000—08 average rate of 6.3%.
Europe and North America each grew only about 1% in 2008, while the oil
exporting regions of South and Central America, the Commonwealth of Independent
States, Africa and the Middle East all experienced GDP growth in excess of 5%.
Asia’s economic growth (GDP) in 2008 was only 2%, owing in large measure to the
negative growth (—0.7%) recorded by Japan. By contrast, developing Asia
(excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand) grew 5.7%, led by China, which
registered the fastest growth of any major economy, at 9.0%.
The overall picture was one of continuing growth in the first half of the year,
with oil exporting countries in particular benefiting from record high commodity
prices. This was followed by faltering growth and the beginnings of a severe
downturn in the second half, starting in the United States and other developed
countries, and then spreading to developing countries.
Exchange rates and commodity prices
The value of the US dollar against a broad group of currencies — that is, its
real effective exchange rate — rose during 2008 as the United States currency
strengthened against those of its trading partners. The rise of the dollar
followed a weakening against other currencies since 2002. The 2008 appreciation
was most pronounced in the second half of the year as the financial crisis
intensified. A strengthened dollar appears in large measure to be the result of
a flight to cash in a perceived “safe haven” currency. This may also explain the
strengthened yen (see below).
In the first half of 2008 the euro rose 7% against the dollar and then fell 14%
from July to December. The euro had previously gained 30% against the dollar
between January 2006 and its peak in July 2008. The British pound, the Canadian
dollar and the Korean won all displayed similar trends, falling sharply against
the dollar in the second half of 2008, after a long period of appreciation.
The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan behaved differently in response to the
financial crisis. Both had appreciated against the dollar in recent years. As
the financial crisis took hold, the yen rose sharply against the dollar while
the yuan has remained more or less constant.
Prices for primary commodities were highly volatile in 2008, which is one of the
main reasons why trade performance in the second half of the year was so
different from the first half. After steadily rising throughout 2007, energy
prices spiked to record highs at over $140 a barrel by mid-year, only to crash
afterwards to the lowest level since early 2005 amid weakening demand in oil
importing countries. Between January 2007 and July 2008 fuel prices rose 144%,
more than doubling. But from July until the end of 2008 they fell 63% (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Prices of selected primary products, January 1998 — January
2009
Index, January 2002=100
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
Prices for other primary products, including metals and food, have also fallen from their peaks earlier in 2008. Inflationary pressures remain in check in most countries due to weaker demand for goods worldwide, and deflation may be a greater risk in some countries in the short term.
Trade
Merchandise trade growth in real terms (i.e. adjusted to discount changes in
prices) slowed significantly in 2008 to 2%, compared to 6% in 2007. But trade
still managed to grow faster than global output, as is usually the case when
production growth is positive. Conversely, when output growth is declining trade
growth tends to fall even faster, as we are now witnessing.
In dollar terms (which includes price changes and exchange rate fluctuations),
world merchandise exports increased by 15% in 2008, to $15.8 trillion, while
exports of commercial services rose 11% to $3.7 trillion.
The share of developing economies in world merchandise trade set new records in
2008, with exports rising to 38% of the world total and imports increasing to
34%.
Germany’s merchandise exports in 2008, at $1.47 trillion, were slightly larger
than China’s $1.43 trillion. This meant that Germany retained its position as
the world’s leading merchandise exporter.
Despite its strong overall trade performance, China’s exports in some product
categories faltered towards the end of the year. Exports of office and telecom
equipment to the rest of the world, worth some $381.5 billion in 2008, fell 7%
in the fourth quarter compared to the same period of the previous year, after
growing at an average rate of 17% during the first three quarters. Exports of
office and telecom equipment to the United States fell even more sharply,
registering a 13% decline in the fourth quarter after growth of 10% in the third
quarter. Overall, exports of Chinese manufactured goods to the United States
increased just 1% over the previous year, after growth of 14% in the third
quarter.
One of the sectors hardest hit by the global recession has been the automobile
industry. Japan’s exports of automotive products to the rest of the world fell
by 18%, while exports to the United States dropped by 30% in the fourth quarter
of 2008. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA),
passenger car registrations were down 18% in Europe in February 2009, compared
to the previous year. The new EU member states of Eastern Europe were hardest
hit, with a drop of 30%, while Germany was a conspicuous exception with an
increase of nearly 22%. Sales in Germany were boosted by a 2,500 euro “scrapping
bonus” provided by the German government to customers who replaced an older
vehicle with a new one. The scheme is intended to at least partly counteract
slumping foreign sales of German cars. According to the German industry
association Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA), the number of vehicles
exported in February 2009 fell 51% over the previous year, while the volume of
imports was down 47%. Autodata Corp. also reports a 41% decline in American
automobile sales in February 2009.
As with merchandise exports, commercial services exports for which data were
available fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with the previous year —
albeit less so (7—8%) than merchandise (12%). For the year as a whole,
commercial services exports grew more slowly than goods exports (on a balance of
payments basis), rising by 11% compared with 15% for goods. Exports of transport
services rose 15% in 2008 while travel services and other commercial services
both increased 10%. The United States remained the largest exporter and importer
of commercial services, with exports of $522 billion and imports of $364
billion.
One indicator of the severity of the global downturn in trade has been the
fall-off in international shipping. According to the International Air Transport
Association (IATA), air cargo traffic was down 23% in December 2008 compared to
a year earlier, led by a strong decline of 26% in the Asia-Pacific region. To
give some perspective on the magnitude of this drop, the decline recorded in
September 2001, when most of the world’s aircraft were temporarily grounded, was
only 14%.
Another measure that has received a lot of attention recently is the Baltic Dry
Index, a measure of the cost of shipping bulk cargo by sea, published by the
Baltic Exchange in London, the leading world marketplace for brokering shipping
contracts. Movements in the index can be tracked to global demand for
manufactured goods. Between June and November of 2008 the Baltic Dry Index fell
by 94%.
Annual trade figures in dollar terms were strongly influenced by changes in
commodity prices and exchange rates in 2008. Despite the fact that fuel prices
ended 2008 at a lower level than at any point in 2007, average prices for 2008
were about 40% higher than 2007, which tended to raise total merchandise imports
for most countries. For example, United States merchandise imports grew 7% in
2008, but non-fuel imports only increased by 1%. Prices for food and beverages
have also receded from their peaks of last year.
Merchandise trade, volume (real) terms, 2008
Merchandise trade in volume terms (excluding the price and exchange rate fluctuations) expanded by 2% in 2008, down from 6% in 2007. Growth for the year was below the average 5.7% registered during the 1998-08 period. Trade growth was very close to GDP growth in 2008, compared to earlier years when trade growth exceeded GDP. It is likely to be below GDP growth next year (Chart 3).
Chart 3: Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade and GDP,
1998-2008
Annual % change
Source: WTO Secretariat.
South and Central America saw exports expand by 1.5% and imports grow by 15.5%.
Import growth was faster than that of any other region. (Table 1) Imports grew
faster than GDP while export volume lagged behind output.
The region with the fastest export volume growth in 2008 was the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS — a group of former Soviet Union states), which recorded
a 6% increase compared to 2007. The region also had the second highest import
growth compared to any other, with a 15% expansion over the previous year.
Both export and import volumes for the Middle East were down sharply in 2008,
falling to 3% from 4% in 2007 for exports, and to 10% from 14% for imports.
The growth of Africa’s exports and imports also slowed in 2008, falling from
4.5% in 2007 to 3% in 2008 on the export side, and from 14% in 2007 to 13% on
the import side.
Table 1: GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2006-2008
Annual % change at constant prices
|
GDP |
Exports |
Imports |
||||||
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
World |
3.7 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
8.5 |
6.0 |
2.0 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
2.0 |
North America |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.1 |
8.5 |
5.0 |
1.5 |
6.0 |
2.0 |
-2.5 |
United States |
2.8 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
10.5 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
1.0 |
-4.0 |
South and Central America a |
6.1 |
6.6 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
15.5 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
Europe |
3.1 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
7.5 |
4.0 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
4.0 |
-1.0 |
European Union (27) |
3.0 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
7.5 |
3.5 |
0.0 |
7.0 |
3.5 |
-1.0 |
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) |
7.5 |
8.4 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
7.5 |
6.0 |
20.5 |
20.0 |
15.0 |
Africa |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.0 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
3.0 |
10.0 |
14.0 |
13.0 |
Middle East |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
5.5 |
14.0 |
10.0 |
Asia |
4.6 |
4.9 |
2.0 |
13.5 |
11.5 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
8.0 |
4.0 |
China |
11.6 |
11.9 |
9.0 |
22.0 |
19.5 |
8.5 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
4.0 |
Japan |
2.0 |
2.4 |
-0.7 |
10.0 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
-1.0 |
India |
9.8 |
9.3 |
7.9 |
11.0 |
13.0 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
16.0 |
12.5 |
Newly industrialized economies (4) b |
5.6 |
5.6 |
1.7 |
13.0 |
9.0 |
3.5 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
3.5 |
a Includes the Caribbean.
b Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Asia’s exports and imports dropped sharply in volume terms. Export growth was
4.5% in 2008, down from 11.5% in 2007, and 13.5% in 2006. Import growth in 2008
was even slower, at 4%, down from 8% in the previous year.
Europe registered the slowest export growth of any region last year, with an
expansion of just 0.5%, down from 4% in 2007. Import growth turned negative in
2008, falling by 1%.
North America’s exports grew by 1.5% in 2008, while imports dropped 2.5%. Both
exports and imports were down sharply from 2007 (Chart 4).
Chart 4: Real merchandise trade growth by region, 2008
Annual % change
a Includes the Caribbean.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Merchandise and services trade, value (nominal) terms, 2008
Prices and exchange rates
Net oil-exporting regions benefited from record high fuel prices in 2008, as the
cost of a barrel of oil rose to over $140 by mid-year. Prices turned down after
July, however, and ended the year below $50 per barrel, as world oil demand
moderated and the global economy slowed.
Significantly higher energy prices in 2008 had a strong effect on nominal (i.e.
where prices and exchange rate changes are included) merchandise trade values
and growth rates compared to 2007. Energy prices rose 40% on average last year,
while prices for food and beverages both increased 23%. Agricultural raw
material prices fell by less than 1%, while metals dropped 8.0% (Chart 5).
Chart 5: Export prices of selected primary products, 2006-2008
Annual % change
a Comprising coffee, cocoa beans and tea.
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.
The appreciation of the dollar against other
currencies in late 2008, especially against the euro, also influenced trade
developments estimated in nominal terms. The growth of trade in euro-zone
countries is probably understated as a result of being expressed in dollars.
The Canadian dollar, British pound and Korean won have followed similar
trajectories as that of the euro, first appreciating against the dollar in
recent years then reversing this trend sharply as the financial crisis worsened.
The Chinese yuan has risen gradually against the dollar since 2005, but remained
fairly stable during the latter half of 2008 amid increasing turmoil in
financial markets. The Japanese yen also appreciated sharply (Chart 6).
Chart 6: Dollar exchange rates of selected major currencies, January
2001-January 2009
Indices, January 2000=100
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.
World merchandise exports in nominal dollar terms rose 15% in 2008, to $15.8 trillion, while exports of commercial services increased 11% to $3.7 trillion. The faster growth of merchandise trade may be explained by rising commodity prices during the year, especially the 40% increase in energy costs (Table 2).
Table 2: World exports of merchandise and commercial services,
2000-08
(Billion dollars and percentage)
|
Value |
Annual % change |
|||
|
2008 |
2000-08 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Merchandise |
15775 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
Commercial services |
3730 |
12 |
13 |
19 |
11 |
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Merchandise trade
North America exhibited the weakest growth of
merchandise trade on both the export and import sides. Exports increased 10% to
$2.0 trillion in 2008, while imports rose 7%, to $2.9 trillion. According to the
National Bureau of Economic Research, which traditionally is the body that dates
recessions in the United States, the US economy has been in recession since
December 2007. This explains its relatively weak trade performance (Appendix
Table 1).
South and Central America saw more robust growth, of 21% in exports ($602
billion) and 30% in imports ($595 billion).
Like North America, Europe grew slowly in 2008 compared to 2007, but this was
partly influenced by the depreciation of the Euro over the course of the year.
Exports increased by 12%, to $6.5 trillion, while imports rose 12%, to $6.8
trillion.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) saw robust growth of both exports
and imports, resting on the strength of the region’s extractive industries.
Exports rose 35%, to $703 billion, while imports increased by 31% to $493
billion.
Africa, like other natural-resource-rich regions, also saw a strong expansion in
exports and imports in 2008. Exports increased 29% to $561 billion, and imports
rose to $466 billion, 27% higher than in 2007. The Middle East enjoyed the
fastest export growth of all regions in 2008, at 36% ($1.0 trillion), while
imports grew by 23% ($575 billion). Finally, Asia’s exports increased 15% in
nominal terms to $4.4 trillion, and imports rose by 20%, to $4.2 trillion.
Germany remained the leading merchandise exporter in 2008, with shipments worth
$1.47 trillion, despite the fact that its share in world exports fell to 9.1%
from 9.5% in 2007 (Appendix Table 3). China was the second largest, with exports
of $1.43 trillion and an 8.9% share in world. Rounding out the top 5 exporters
were the United States ($1.3 trillion or 8.1% of world), Japan ($782 billion,
4.9%), and the Netherlands ($634 billion, 3.9%).
The United States continued to lead all merchandise importers with shipments
from the rest of the world worth $2.17 trillion (13.2%). Germany was the second
largest importer of merchandise, with a 7.3% share valued at $1.21 trillion. The
remaining top five importers were China in third place, ($1.13 trillion or
6.9%), Japan in fourth ($762 billion, 4.6%), and France in fifth ($708 billion,
4.3%.)
Taking the European Union (i.e. the 27 current member states) as a single entity
and excluding internal EU trade, the five leading exporters were as follows: the
European Union (15.9%), China (11.8%), the United States (10.7%), Japan (6.4%)
and Russian Federation (3.9%). Exports from the EU were worth 1.93 trillion in
2008 (Appendix Table 4).
Commercial services trade
World commercial services exports rose 11% in 2008, to $3.7 trillion. Among the three major categories of services exports, the fastest growing one in the past year was transport (15% growth), followed by travel (10%), and other commercial services (10%). Other commercial services, which includes financial services, was just over half of the total (51%), while travel and transport each represented about a quarter (25% and 23%, respectively) (Table 3).
Table 3: World exports of commercial services trade by major
category, 2008
$bn and % change
|
Value |
Annual % change |
|||
|
2008 |
2000-08 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Commercial services |
3730 |
12 |
13 |
19 |
11 |
Transport |
875 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
15 |
Travel |
945 |
9 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
Other commercial services |
1910 |
14 |
16 |
22 |
10 |
Source: WTO Secretariat.
In 2008, North America’s exports of commercial
services increased by 9%, to $603 billion, while imports grew 6%, to $473
billion (Appendix Table 2).
The financial crisis shows up clearly in quarterly data on trade in commercial
services for North America. The region’s trade, which was growing rapidly in the
first nine months of 2008 (13% for exports and 10% for imports), slowed suddenly
in the last quarter (-2% for exports and -3% for imports). The most affected
sector was travel, which includes tourism (-2% for exports and -6% for imports).
In 2008, Europe’s exports of commercial services increased by 11%, to $1.9
trillion, while imports grew 10%, to $1.6 trillion.
The impact of the financial crisis is also evident in the case of Europe.
According to available data, the region’s exports of commercial services, which
were growing by 19% in the first nine months of 2008, dropped to an 11% decline
in the last quarter. It should be noted that exchange rate effects in the last
quarter of 2008 are likely to have magnified the impact of the crisis, but they
do not explain such a large drop on their own.
Exports of commercial services of South and Central America increased 16% ($109
billion), while imports rose 20% ($117 billion).
The Commonwealth of Independent States advanced 26% on the export side, to $83
billion, while imports rose 25%, to $114 billion.
Africa’s commercial services exports grew 13% in 2008, to $88 billion. Imports
also grew 15%, rising to $121 billion.
Commercial services exports of the Middle East reached $94 billion in 2008, 17%
higher than the previous year. Imports were also up 13%, to $158 billion.
Asia’s exports, valued at $837 billion, were 12% above their 2007 level. Imports
also increased by 12%, to $858 billion.
The United States saw its exports of commercial services rise 10% in 2008, to
$522 billion, making it the top exporter. The country’s share in world services
exports was 14% in 2008 (Appendix Table 5). The United Kingdom remained the
second largest exporter with a 7.6% world share worth $283 billion.
Germany (6.3% or $235 billion), France (4.1%, $153 billion) and Japan (3.9%,
$144 billion) rounded out the top 5, with Japan rising one place in the rankings
and replacing Spain.
The Secretariat estimates that China remained in seventh place with exports of
$137 billion (3.7% of the world total). India ranks ninth with a 2.8% share in
the world total, worth $106 billion, and the Netherlands replaced Ireland as the
tenth largest exporter.
On the import side, the United States stayed in first place, with imports rising
7% to $364 billion (10.5% of world imports of commercial services). Germany was
the second largest importer at $285 billion (8.2% of world). The next three
largest services importers were as follows: The United Kingdom in third place
($199 billion, or 5.7% of world trade), Japan fourth ($166 billion, 4.8%) and
China fifth ($ 152 billion, or 4.4 percent). The only change in the ranking of
the top 10 importers was the addition of the Republic of Korea in tenth place,
displacing the Netherlands which dropped to eleventh place.
Appendix Chart 1
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006 — February 2009
$bn
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.
Appendix Table 1
World merchandise trade by region and selected country, 2008
$bn and %
|
Exports |
Imports |
||||||||
|
Value |
Annual % change |
Value |
Annual % change |
||||||
|
2008 |
2000-2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
2000-2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
World |
15775 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
16120 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
North America |
2049 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
2909 |
7 |
11 |
6 |
7 |
United States |
1301 |
7 |
15 |
12 |
12 |
2166 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
7 |
Canada |
456 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
418 |
7 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
Mexico |
292 |
7 |
17 |
9 |
7 |
323 |
7 |
15 |
10 |
9 |
South and Central America a |
602 |
15 |
21 |
14 |
21 |
595 |
14 |
22 |
25 |
30 |
Brazil |
198 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
23 |
183 |
15 |
23 |
32 |
44 |
Other South and Central |
404 |
14 |
23 |
13 |
20 |
413 |
14 |
21 |
23 |
24 |
Europe |
6456 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
6833 |
12 |
15 |
16 |
12 |
European Union (27) |
5913 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
11 |
6268 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
12 |
Germany |
1465 |
13 |
14 |
19 |
11 |
1206 |
12 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
France |
609 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
10 |
708 |
10 |
7 |
14 |
14 |
Netherlands |
634 |
13 |
14 |
19 |
15 |
574 |
13 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
Italy |
540 |
11 |
12 |
18 |
10 |
556 |
11 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
United Kingdom b |
458 |
6 |
16 |
-2 |
4 |
632 |
8 |
17 |
4 |
1 |
Commonwealth of Independent
|
703 |
22 |
25 |
20 |
35 |
493 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
31 |
Russian Federation c |
472 |
21 |
25 |
17 |
33 |
292 |
26 |
31 |
36 |
31 |
Africa |
561 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
29 |
466 |
17 |
16 |
24 |
27 |
South Africa |
81 |
13 |
13 |
20 |
16 |
99 |
16 |
26 |
12 |
12 |
Africa less South Africa |
481 |
19 |
20 |
17 |
32 |
367 |
18 |
13 |
28 |
31 |
Oil exporters d |
347 |
21 |
21 |
18 |
36 |
137 |
21 |
9 |
31 |
37 |
Non oil exporters |
133 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
22 |
229 |
16 |
15 |
27 |
28 |
Middle East |
1047 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
36 |
575 |
17 |
12 |
25 |
23 |
Asia |
4355 |
13 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
4247 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
20 |
China |
1428 |
24 |
27 |
26 |
17 |
1133 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
Japan |
782 |
6 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
762 |
9 |
12 |
7 |
22 |
India |
179 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
292 |
24 |
21 |
25 |
35 |
Newly industrialized economies |
1033 |
10 |
15 |
11 |
10 |
1093 |
10 |
16 |
11 |
17 |
Memorandum items: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developing economies |
6025 |
15 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
5494 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
21 |
MERCOSUR f |
279 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
25 |
259 |
14 |
24 |
31 |
41 |
ASEAN g |
990 |
11 |
17 |
12 |
15 |
936 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
21 |
EU (27) extra-trade |
1928 |
12 |
11 |
17 |
13 |
2283 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) |
176 |
22 |
25 |
24 |
36 |
157 |
17 |
15 |
24 |
27 |
a. Includes the Caribbean. For composition
of groups see the Technical Notes of WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2008.
b. The 2007 annual change is affected by a reduction in trade associated
with fraudulent VAT declaration. For further information, refer to the special
notes of the monthly
UK Trade First Release
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon,
Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.
e. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
f. Common Market of the Southern Cone: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay,
Uruguay
g. Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,
Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 2
World exports of commercial services by region and selected country, 2008
$bn and %
|
Exports |
Imports |
||||||||
|
Value |
Annual % change |
Value |
Annual % change |
||||||
|
2008 |
2000-2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
2000-2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
World |
3730 |
12 |
13 |
19 |
11 |
3470 |
12 |
12 |
18 |
11 |
North America |
603 |
8 |
12 |
14 |
9 |
473 |
7 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
United States |
522 |
8 |
13 |
16 |
10 |
364 |
7 |
12 |
9 |
7 |
South and Central America b |
109 |
11 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
117 |
10 |
14 |
21 |
20 |
Brazil |
29 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
27 |
44 |
14 |
21 |
28 |
28 |
Europe |
1919 |
13 |
12 |
21 |
11 |
1628 |
12 |
10 |
19 |
10 |
European Union (27) |
1738 |
13 |
12 |
21 |
10 |
1516 |
12 |
10 |
19 |
10 |
Germany |
235 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
11 |
285 |
10 |
8 |
15 |
11 |
United Kingdom |
283 |
12 |
13 |
20 |
2 |
199 |
9 |
8 |
16 |
1 |
France |
153 |
9 |
3 |
15 |
6 |
137 |
11 |
8 |
15 |
6 |
Italy |
123 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
132 |
12 |
11 |
21 |
12 |
Spain |
143 |
13 |
13 |
21 |
11 |
108 |
16 |
17 |
26 |
10 |
Commonwealth of Independent
|
83 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
26 |
114 |
22 |
17 |
30 |
25 |
Russian Federation |
50 |
23 |
25 |
27 |
29 |
75 |
21 |
16 |
32 |
29 |
Africa |
88 |
14 |
13 |
22 |
13 |
121 |
16 |
16 |
31 |
15 |
Egypt |
25 |
12 |
10 |
24 |
26 |
16 |
11 |
8 |
27 |
25 |
South Africa a |
13 |
13 |
7 |
13 |
... |
17 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
... |
Middle East |
94 |
14 |
18 |
13 |
17 |
158 |
16 |
21 |
29 |
13 |
Israel |
24 |
6 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
20 |
7 |
8 |
20 |
11 |
Asia |
837 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
12 |
858 |
11 |
14 |
18 |
12 |
Japan |
144 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
166 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
China a |
137 |
... |
24 |
33 |
... |
152 |
... |
21 |
29 |
... |
India a |
106 |
... |
35 |
22 |
... |
91 |
... |
33 |
23 |
... |
Four East Asian traders c |
271 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
10 |
247 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
7 |
a. Secretariat estimates.
b. Includes the Caribbean. For composition of groups see Chapter IV
Metadata of WTO International Trade Statistics, 2008.
c. Chinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea and Singapore.
Note: While provisional full year data were available in early March for 50 countries accounting for more than two thirds of world commercial services trade, estimates for most other countries are based on data for the first three quarters (the first six months in the case of China).
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 3
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008
$bn and %
Rank |
Exporters |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
Rank |
Importers |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Germany |
1465 |
9.1 |
11 |
1 |
United States |
2166 |
13.2 |
7 |
2 |
China |
1428 |
8.9 |
17 |
2 |
Germany |
1206 |
7.3 |
14 |
3 |
United States |
1301 |
8.1 |
12 |
3 |
China |
1133 |
6.9 |
19 |
4 |
Japan |
782 |
4.9 |
10 |
4 |
Japan |
762 |
4.6 |
22 |
5 |
Netherlands |
634 |
3.9 |
15 |
5 |
France |
708 |
4.3 |
14 |
6 |
France |
609 |
3.8 |
10 |
6 |
United Kingdom |
632 |
3.8 |
1 |
7 |
Italy |
540 |
3.3 |
10 |
7 |
Netherlands |
574 |
3.5 |
16 |
8 |
Belgium |
477 |
3.0 |
10 |
8 |
Italy |
556 |
3.4 |
10 |
9 |
Russian Federation |
472 |
2.9 |
33 |
9 |
Belgium |
470 |
2.9 |
14 |
10 |
United Kingdom |
458 |
2.8 |
4 |
10 |
Korea, Republic of |
435 |
2.7 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
Canada |
456 |
2.8 |
8 |
11 |
Canada |
418 |
2.5 |
7 |
12 |
Korea, Republic of |
422 |
2.6 |
14 |
12 |
Spain |
402 |
2.5 |
3 |
13 |
Hong Kong, China |
370 |
2.3 |
6 |
13 |
Hong Kong, China |
393 |
2.4 |
6 |
|
- domestic exports |
17 |
0.1 |
... |
|
- retained imports |
98 |
0.6 |
... |
|
- re-exports |
353 |
2.2 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
Singapore |
338 |
2.1 |
13 |
14 |
Mexico |
323 |
2.0 |
9 |
|
- domestic exports |
176 |
1.1 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- re-exports |
162 |
1.0 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
Saudi Arabia a |
329 |
2.0 |
40 |
15 |
Singapore |
320 |
1.9 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- retained imports b |
157 |
1.0 |
31 |
16 |
Mexico |
292 |
1.8 |
7 |
16 |
Russian Federation c |
292 |
1.8 |
31 |
17 |
Spain |
268 |
1.7 |
6 |
17 |
India |
292 |
1.8 |
35 |
18 |
Taipei, Chinese |
256 |
1.6 |
4 |
18 |
Taipei, Chinese |
240 |
1.5 |
10 |
19 |
United Arab Emirates a |
232 |
1.4 |
28 |
19 |
Poland |
204 |
1.2 |
23 |
20 |
Switzerland |
200 |
1.2 |
16 |
20 |
Turkey |
202 |
1.2 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
Malaysia |
200 |
1.2 |
13 |
21 |
Australia |
200 |
1.2 |
21 |
22 |
Brazil |
198 |
1.2 |
23 |
22 |
Austria |
184 |
1.1 |
13 |
23 |
Australia |
187 |
1.2 |
33 |
23 |
Switzerland |
183 |
1.1 |
14 |
24 |
Sweden |
184 |
1.1 |
9 |
24 |
Brazil |
183 |
1.1 |
44 |
25 |
Austria |
182 |
1.1 |
11 |
25 |
Thailand |
179 |
1.1 |
28 |
26 |
India |
179 |
1.1 |
22 |
26 |
Sweden |
167 |
1.0 |
10 |
27 |
Thailand |
178 |
1.1 |
17 |
27 |
United Arab Emirates a |
159 |
1.0 |
20 |
28 |
Poland |
168 |
1.0 |
20 |
28 |
Malaysia |
157 |
1.0 |
7 |
29 |
Norway |
168 |
1.0 |
23 |
29 |
Czech Republic |
142 |
0.9 |
20 |
30 |
Czech Republic |
147 |
0.9 |
20 |
30 |
Indonesia |
126 |
0.8 |
36 |
|
Total of above d |
13120 |
81.4 |
- |
|
Total of above d |
13409 |
81.7 |
- |
|
World d |
16127 |
100.0 |
15 |
|
World d |
16415 |
100.0 |
15 |
a. Secretariat estimates.
b. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less
re-exports.
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 4
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008
Excluding intra-EU (27) trade
$bn and %
Rank |
Exporters |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
Rank |
Importers |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Extra-EU (27) exports |
1928 |
15.9 |
13 |
1 |
Extra-EU (27) imports |
2283 |
18.4 |
16 |
2 |
China |
1428 |
11.8 |
17 |
2 |
United States |
2166 |
17.4 |
7 |
3 |
United States |
1301 |
10.7 |
12 |
3 |
China |
1133 |
9.1 |
19 |
4 |
Japan |
782 |
6.4 |
10 |
4 |
Japan |
762 |
6.1 |
22 |
5 |
Russian Federation |
472 |
3.9 |
33 |
5 |
Korea, Republic of |
435 |
3.5 |
22 |
6 |
Canada |
456 |
3.8 |
8 |
6 |
Canada |
418 |
3.4 |
7 |
7 |
Korea, Republic of |
422 |
3.5 |
14 |
7 |
Hong Kong, China |
393 |
3.2 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- retained imports |
98 |
0.8 |
... |
8 |
Hong Kong, China |
370 |
3.0 |
6 |
8 |
Mexico |
323 |
2.6 |
9 |
|
- domestic exports |
17 |
0.1 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- re-exports |
353 |
2.9 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
Singapore |
338 |
2.8 |
13 |
9 |
Singapore |
320 |
2.6 |
22 |
|
- domestic exports |
176 |
1.4 |
13 |
|
- retained imports a |
157 |
1.3 |
31 |
|
- re-exports |
162 |
1.3 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
Saudi Arabia b |
329 |
2.7 |
40 |
10 |
Russian Federation c |
292 |
2.3 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
Mexico |
292 |
2.4 |
7 |
11 |
India |
292 |
2.3 |
35 |
12 |
Taipei, Chinese |
256 |
2.1 |
4 |
12 |
Taipei, Chinese |
240 |
1.9 |
10 |
13 |
United Arab Emirates b |
232 |
1.9 |
28 |
13 |
Turkey |
202 |
1.6 |
19 |
14 |
Switzerland |
200 |
1.7 |
16 |
14 |
Australia |
200 |
1.6 |
21 |
15 |
Malaysia |
200 |
1.6 |
13 |
15 |
Switzerland |
183 |
1.5 |
14 |
16 |
Brazil |
198 |
1.6 |
23 |
16 |
Brazil |
183 |
1.5 |
44 |
17 |
Australia |
187 |
1.5 |
33 |
17 |
Thailand |
179 |
1.4 |
28 |
18 |
India |
179 |
1.5 |
22 |
18 |
United Arab Emirates b |
159 |
1.3 |
20 |
19 |
Thailand |
178 |
1.5 |
17 |
19 |
Malaysia |
157 |
1.3 |
7 |
20 |
Norway |
168 |
1.4 |
23 |
20 |
Indonesia |
126 |
1.0 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
Indonesia |
139 |
1.1 |
18 |
21 |
Saudi Arabia b |
112 |
0.9 |
24 |
22 |
Turkey |
132 |
1.1 |
23 |
22 |
South Africa b |
99 |
0.8 |
12 |
23 |
Iran, Islamic Rep. of b |
116 |
1.0 |
31 |
23 |
Norway |
89 |
0.7 |
11 |
24 |
Bolivarian Rep.
|
94 |
0.8 |
35 |
24 |
Ukraine |
84 |
0.7 |
39 |
25 |
Kuwait b |
93 |
0.8 |
49 |
25 |
Viet Nam |
80 |
0.6 |
28 |
26 |
Nigeria b |
82 |
0.7 |
24 |
26 |
Israel b |
67 |
0.5 |
14 |
27 |
South Africa |
81 |
0.7 |
16 |
27 |
Chile |
62 |
0.5 |
31 |
28 |
Algeria |
78 |
0.6 |
30 |
28 |
Philippines b |
59 |
0.5 |
2 |
29 |
Kazakhstan |
71 |
0.6 |
49 |
29 |
Argentina |
57 |
0.5 |
28 |
30 |
Argentina |
71 |
0.6 |
27 |
30 |
Iran, Islamic Rep. of b |
57 |
0.5 |
27 |
|
Total of above d |
10873 |
89.5 |
- |
|
Total of above d |
11215 |
90.2 |
- |
|
World
d |
12142 |
100.0 |
17 |
|
World
d |
12430 |
100.0 |
17 |
a. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less
re-exports.
b. Secretariat estimates.
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 5
Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services,
2008
$bn and %
Rank |
Exporters |
Value |
Share |
Annual % |
Rank |
Importers |
Value |
Share |
Annual |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
United States |
522 |
14.0 |
10 |
1 |
United States |
364 |
10.5 |
7 |
2 |
United Kingdom |
283 |
7.6 |
2 |
2 |
Germany |
285 |
8.2 |
11 |
3 |
Germany |
235 |
6.3 |
11 |
3 |
United Kingdom |
199 |
5.7 |
1 |
4 |
France |
153 |
4.1 |
6 |
4 |
Japan |
166 |
4.8 |
11 |
5 |
Japan |
144 |
3.9 |
13 |
5 |
China a |
152 |
4.4 |
... |
6 |
Spain |
143 |
3.8 |
11 |
6 |
France |
137 |
3.9 |
6 |
7 |
China a |
137 |
3.7 |
... |
7 |
Italy |
132 |
3.8 |
12 |
8 |
Italy |
123 |
3.3 |
12 |
8 |
Spain |
108 |
3.1 |
10 |
9 |
India a |
106 |
2.8 |
... |
9 |
Ireland a |
103 |
3.0 |
9 |
10 |
Netherlands a |
102 |
2.7 |
8 |
10 |
Korea, Republic of |
93 |
2.7 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
Ireland a |
96 |
2.6 |
8 |
11 |
Netherlands a |
92 |
2.6 |
10 |
12 |
Hong Kong, China |
91 |
2.4 |
9 |
12 |
India a |
91 |
2.6 |
... |
13 |
Belgium a |
89 |
2.4 |
16 |
13 |
Canada |
84 |
2.4 |
5 |
14 |
Switzerland |
74 |
2.0 |
15 |
14 |
Belgium a |
84 |
2.4 |
16 |
15 |
Korea, Republic of |
74 |
2.0 |
20 |
15 |
Singapore |
76 |
2.2 |
6 |
16 |
Denmark |
72 |
1.9 |
17 |
16 |
Russian Federation |
75 |
2.2 |
29 |
17 |
Singapore |
72 |
1.9 |
3 |
17 |
Denmark |
62 |
1.8 |
16 |
18 |
Sweden |
71 |
1.9 |
13 |
18 |
Sweden |
54 |
1.6 |
13 |
19 |
Luxembourg a |
68 |
1.8 |
5 |
19 |
Thailand |
46 |
1.3 |
22 |
20 |
Canada |
62 |
1.7 |
2 |
20 |
Australia |
45 |
1.3 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
Austria |
62 |
1.7 |
12 |
21 |
Brazil |
44 |
1.3 |
28 |
22 |
Russian Federation |
50 |
1.3 |
29 |
22 |
Hong Kong, China |
44 |
1.3 |
7 |
23 |
Greece |
50 |
1.3 |
16 |
23 |
Norway |
44 |
1.3 |
12 |
24 |
Norway |
46 |
1.2 |
13 |
24 |
Austria |
42 |
1.2 |
8 |
25 |
Australia |
46 |
1.2 |
15 |
25 |
Luxembourg a |
40 |
1.2 |
8 |
26 |
Poland |
35 |
0.9 |
20 |
26 |
Switzerland |
37 |
1.1 |
10 |
27 |
Turkey |
34 |
0.9 |
22 |
27 |
United Arab Emirates a |
35 |
1.0 |
... |
28 |
Taipei, Chinese |
34 |
0.9 |
8 |
28 |
Saudi Arabia a |
34 |
1.0 |
... |
29 |
Thailand |
33 |
0.9 |
11 |
29 |
Taipei, Chinese |
34 |
1.0 |
-2 |
30 |
Malaysia |
30 |
0.8 |
5 |
30 |
Poland |
30 |
0.9 |
25 |
|
Total of above |
3135 |
84.1 |
- |
|
Total of above |
2835 |
81.7 |
- |
|
World |
3730 |
100.0 |
11 |
|
World |
3470 |
100.0 |
11 |
a. Secretariat estimates.
Note: While provisional full year data were available in early
March for 50 countries accounting for more than two thirds of world
commercial services trade, estimates for most other countries are based
on data for the first three quarters (the first six months in the case
of China).
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Notes:
1. Production and trade may be measured in
volume (“real”) or value (“nominal”) terms. Measures of volume or real
production and trade flows are adjusted for price changes and do not take
account of exchange rate changes, thus permitting an assessment of the actual
change in flows. Value or nominal measures of changes in flows include actual
changes as well as changes in underlying prices and exchange rates. Both these
measures are used in this document. back to text
2. Two factors that might accentuate the extent of
year-on-year declines in monthly data in value terms are the higher commodity
prices that prevailed a year ago and increases in the value of the US dollar
compared to most other currencies. The WTO estimate of export growth in 2009 is
not, however, influenced by these considerations because it is calculated in
real rather than nominal terms (see footnote 1 above). back to text
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