
It is clear that
we live in a world which is unsatisfactory - even unacceptable - in many respects. It is a
world where, according to the latest United Nations Human Development Report, over a
quarter of the developing world's people still live in poverty. About a fifth - 1.3
billion - live on incomes of less than $1 a day. And over fifty per cent of the global
population has less than five per cent of global income. These statistics reinforce what
our eyes and ears already tell us - that though we are part of an ever more integrated
global economy, the distance between rich and poor is still intolerably great.But there is another
reality which should not be obscured by these sombre statistics - a reality of real
progress and hope, underlined by Michel Camdessus. Worldwide growth and living standards
are rapidly rising, more rapidly than at any point in the last thirty years. We can
welcome the fact that even this year's UN World Economic and Social Survey
- published today - notes that the circle of economic growth has spread to most
parts of the world - averaging over 3 per cent worldwide. Of the 95 countries it
covers, only 11 failed to increase per capita output in 1996, compared with 24 in 1995.
And the UN's
Human Development Report reminds us that poverty has been reduced more in the last fifty
years than in the last 500. It talks about the potential for eradicating global poverty in
the early part of the next century - a utopian notion even a few decades ago, but a
real possibility today. In the same vein, the OECD now predicts that per capita income in
the developing world could rise by a remarkable 270 per cent by the year 2020, and in the
developed world by 80 per cent. Already developing countries account for a quarter of
world trade; at current rates of growth, they could account for half of world trade by the
year 2020.
Globalization
will not solve the very real problems of distribution we face - nor will it, on its own,
feed and clothe our children, or educate and empower their parents. What globalization
provides is the most powerful engine for growth the world has yet seen - an essential
basis for building the shared global society that is now within our reach. For as the
Secretary-General's Report reminds us, global economic and social development on a
sustainable basis requires "solid rates of economic expansion" - expansion which
cannot be achieved if the raw material of globalization is compromised. A new global
"enabling environment" can only be built on the foundation of an open and
integrated global economy.
Without
denying the real challenges of adjustment and change that liberalization presents, we must
reaffirm our resolve to continue opening our markets - and not just in developed
economies, but in the developing world as well. The evidence is strong that countries
which are prepared to liberate market forces and compete vigorously on the world stage can
expect faster growth and more rapid development. The most impressive case, perhaps, is in
some Asian developing countries where 1.5 billion people have, on average, doubled their
income in the last decade.
Increasingly,
an open trading system is also playing a crucial part in widening and deepening the flow
of technology and information around the world - a process which is central to the
enabling environment we need to create. Recent WTO agreements liberalizing global
telecommunications services and information technology products are about much more than
trade. They are about building the new infrastructure of the information age - in the
same way that the expansion of railways and shipping in the nineteenth century provided
the infrastructure for the industrial age. Equal access to this knowledge infrastructure
will determine equal access to the technological and information tools of the future
- which will in turn define the potential for growth and modernization in the
developing world.
The next step
in this process is to reach a successful conclusion to the current financial services
negotiations this year - and to implement the mandate we have to examine the relationship
between the flows of global trade and global investment. Like telecommunications or
information technologies, financial services cannot be viewed through the outdated
paradigm of importers versus exporters, North versus South. Whatever the country and its
level of development, sustained growth in a competitive world economy now depends on
access to a solid financial system and access to investment. Investment provides much
needed capital; it is a pipeline for transfers of technology and managerial skills; and it
can provide access to global production and distribution systems which in turn open up
export opportunities.
Developing
countries have a growing interest in liberalizing their financial sector and deregulating
their investment regimes in order to build the kind of competitive financial
infrastructure they need for future growth. At the same time, developed economies have a
clear interest in an agreement which will open the fastest growing markets to one of their
fastest growing industries. And all sides in this negotiation have an interest in building
a strong global financial system to support a strong global economy. A rules-based,
multilateral playing field for financial services and investment - rather than a
cat's cradle of discriminatory bilateral or regional deals - will go a long way towards
creating the enabling environment we are discussing today. I listened with great attention
to what Mr. Camdessus has just said about the new role of the IMF in opening capital
accounts.
There is a
third way the multilateral system contributes to the enabling environment. As the world
becomes more interconnected economically, all countries - but especially the weakest and
most vulnerable - will more and more need what the report calls a "fair, equitable,
and transparent regime" of rules to manage their interdependence. This in turn calls
for a full involvement by developing and transition economies in drawing up and using the
multilateral rules, not limiting their focus to exceptions and special provisions.
I am pleased
to note that developing countries are now far more active players in the functioning of
the system. Between 1980 and 1994 developing countries were involved in less than ten per
cent of the 120 disputes examined by the old GATT. But in the last two years alone,
developing countries have initiated about half of the requests for WTO consultations or
panels. And the active and crucial participation of developing countries over the last
twelve months in negotiations on telecommunications services and information technology
are clear evidence of their engagement and commitment to a system which belongs to them as
much as to anyone.
The
multilateral trading system is thus itself a key element in fostering an enabling
environment for development. It helps countries at all levels of development relate to the
basic fact of globalization within a framework that opens opportunities and provides the
security of agreed rights and obligations.
Of course, it
is not perfect. One particular area in which it has been recognized that we need to do
more is the situation of least-developed countries - and doing so is leading us into
improving the ways in which we work together with our partner organizations and
governments. As the 1997 World Economic and Social Survey has noted, output per head has
continued to decline on average in Africa through the 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, the
ratio of trade to GDP fell in 44 of 93 developing countries over the last decade, while
the ratio to foreign investment to GDP fell in more than a third of these countries. While
its true that a number of least-developed countries have recently shown dramatic signs of
turning their economies around - Africa's growth of 4.3 per cent last year was
the best in two decades - it is also true that there remains much more we can do.
I have been
very encouraged by the way in which WTO Member governments have responded to this
challenge by adopting in Singapore a Plan of Action for the Least-Developed Countries. A
major objective of this Plan is to ensure that all least developed countries have a strong
voice in the WTO. After all, membership in the organization does not automatically mean
that all countries have the resources to participate equally in the system. To fully
reflect the interests and objectives of least-developed countries, these countries have to
be able to use it fully. A key contribution of the WTO, working closely with UNCTAD and
the International Trade Centre, is technical assistance for building trade policy
expertise in these countries. We are also employing new technologies much more extensively
to extend the reach and the effectiveness of that assistance, and to make technical
information more relevant to specific economic needs.
As you know,
the Singapore Conference also called for a High-Level meeting for the least-developed
countries, to be organized by the WTO with UNCTAD, the International Trade Centre and
other major multilateral institutions, to forge an integrated approach. The Secretariat's
preparations for this High Level Meeting are proceeding well. There is good cooperation
between the six core agencies involved, and there is every indication that the Conference
will yield positive results.
The goal
is to join with other multilateral institutions, and with least-developed countries
themselves, to devise a new integrated strategy to assist their development; the kind of
enabling environment that will help the least-developed countries to move from the margins
of globalization to the centre.
It is clear
that, as the World Bank has reminded us, building human and institutional capacity is
fundamental to realizing these aims. In many countries, the existing social, health, and
education systems are not even sufficient to meet basic human needs, let alone to prepare
people to take advantage of the information economies and global markets of the future.
Then there is the difficulty many countries face of trying to manage profound economic
change with weak governing structures. We cannot expect to achieve sustainable growth
without the foundations of strong financial and legal systems, a healthy environment, and
the basic necessities of health, education, and security.
As the
Secretary General's report correctly emphasizes, the task begins with national governments
themselves. But it does not end at national borders. In a world where economic
opportunities and challenges increasingly transcend national borders we have to look to
forms of international cooperation and new approaches to international governance. When
trade has become thirty per cent of world GDP - and is projected to grow to fifty per cent
by the year 2020 - how else to define the management of sovereignty? By going back to
nineteenth century ideas? Or by embracing the global rule-of-law, agreed by consensus,
which extends, not limits, the ability of national governments to defend national
interests in a world without borders? The fact remains that the international policy
framework required to exploit today's global opportunities and to manage today's global
challenges is not yet fully in place.
The need is
not to discuss whether globalization is a good thing, but to ask two further questions.
The first question we have to ask is "what would be the alternative?" It would
be a world divided by economic and political nationalism - a world in which we would go
down the road towards power-based relations, increased tension and violence, as history
has taught us.
The second
question - the real one we must answer - is how can we improve the present international
system keeping it strongly based on the rule of law and on further lowering of barriers
among people and countries.
We should try
to lift our vision towards a greater coherence among national and international
institutions. This, surely, is one of the most important keys to creating an enabling
environment for development. |