WORLD TRADE OUTLOOK INDICATOR
The latest results are broadly in line with the WTO's most recent trade forecast issued on 12 April 2018, which predicted a moderation of merchandise trade volume growth from 4.7% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2018. Risks to the trade forecast posed by rising trade tensions remain present.
The moderate dip in the overall WTOI index was driven by declines in component indices for export orders and air freight. The forward-looking export orders index dropped sharply, falling from an above-trend plateau to a below-trend value (98.1) in the latest month. While the air freight index remains above trend (102.5), it has lost momentum in recent months. Container port throughput remains above trend (105.8) but shows signs of plateauing, while automobile sales (97.9) and agricultural raw materials (95.9) are currently weighing down the WTOI. In contrast to the mixed results elsewhere, the index for electronic components trade (104.2) has turned up, climbing above trend.
Designed to provide "real time" information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends, the WTOI is not intended as a short-term forecast, although it does provide an indication of trade growth in the near future. Its main contribution is to identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth. As such, it complements trade statistics and forecasts from the WTO and other organizations. Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above-trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the reverse. The direction of change reflects momentum compared with the previous month.
The full World Trade Outlook Indicator is available here.
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