Septième Conférence FMI-Banque mondiale-OMC sur le commerce

9:50 – 10:00 am

Welcome and introductory remarks by Robert Koopman, Chief Economist, WTO

10:00 – 10:15 am

Opening remarks by Roberto Azevêdo, Director General, WTO

10:15 – 12:15 pm

Session 1: Trade and Development (Chair: Hui Tong, IMF)

• Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle (Chris Papageorgiou, IMF)
  Presentation
• Are Trade Preferences a Panacea? The African Growth and Opportunity Act and African Exports (Ana Fernandes, WB)
  Presentation
• Distance, Formal and Informal Institutions in International Trade (Rainer Lanz, WTO)
  Presentation
• Commodity Exports, Foreign Reserve Accumulation and Corporate Risk-taking (Hui Tong, IMF)

12:15 – 12:45 pm

Lunch Break

12:45 – 2:00 pm

Lunch panel: A level playing field - Trade, subsidies and imbalances (Moderator: Marc Auboin, WTO)

• Martin Kaufman, Assistant Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF
• Robert Koopman, Chief Economist and Director, Economic Research and Statistics Division, WTO
• Clarisse Morgan Director, Rules Division, WTO
• Julia Nielson, Deputy Director, Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD

2:00 – 4:00 pm

Session 2: Trade Agreements (Chair: Marc Bacchetta, WTO)

• On the Effects of GATT/WTO Membership on Trade: They are Positive and Large After All (Jose-Antonio Monteiro, WTO)
  Presentation
• Negative Trade Diversion: A firm level analysis of non-member benefits of deep trade agreements (Woori Lee, WB)
  Presentation
• How WTO Commitments Tame Uncertainty (Adam Jakubik, WTO)
  Presentation
• Gains from Trade and Heterogeneous Trade Elasticities: Assessing the Short-Term Impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom’s Export of Goods (Hiau-Looi Kee, WB)

4:00 – 4:15 pm

Coffee Break

4:15 – 5:15 pm

Session 3: Egg-timer presentations (Chair: Stela Rubínová, WTO)

• Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world (Eddy Bekkers, WTO)
  Presentation
• The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat (Natalija Novta, IMF)
  Presentation
• Trade Wars and Trade Talks: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model (Rui Mano, IMF)

5:15 – 6:15 pm

Keynote lecture on Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks by Beata Javorcik, Professor of Economics, University of Oxford (Chair: Ana Fernandes, WB)

6:30 pm

Dinner

9:00 – 10:30 am

Session 4: Export dynamics (Chair: Robert Teh, WTO)

• Import Uncertainty and Export Dynamics (Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, IMF)
  Presentation
• Indirect Exporter Dynamics and the Impact on Trade Liberalization (Parisa Kamali, IMF)
  Presentation
• The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains (Diego Cerdeiro, IMF)

10:30 – 10:45 am

Coffee Break

10:45 – 12:45 pm

Session 5: Trade and Inequality (Chair: Roberta Piermartini, WTO)

• Trading of the Income Gains and the Inequality Costs of Trade Policy (Bob Rijkers, WB)
  Presentation
• Revisiting the drivers of US labor market polarization (Stela Rubínová, WTO)
  Presentation
• Robots, Tasks, and Trade (Paulo Bastos, WB)
  Presentation
• The Impact of Service Sector Liberalization on Education: Evidence from India (Enrico Nano, WTO)
  Presentation

12:45 – 1:25 pm

Special session: Modelling trade wars by Marika Santoro, IMF (Chair: Eddy Bekkers, WTO)

1:25 – 1:30 pm

Concluding remarks by the organizers