MÁS INFORMACIÓN:
> Discursos: Roberto Azevêdo
Minister, excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, it is truly an honour — I’m delighted to be here.
I’d like to thank you for arranging this event. Throughout my meetings today I have been hearing about a country which has a vision, a country that knows that the future can be promising, and that sees potential in it. On the basis of this, instead of making a speech which focuses on the specifics of the Geneva process, I would rather take a look at the big picture, at what is ahead of us.
Even before I do that, I have a few words of thanks that I have to express here today. I have to thank you firstly for the help and support that was provided to me and the WTO by Kenya to achieve the Bali outcomes.
That was a very, very important moment in the life of the organization and frankly for businesses around the world — and particularly for the smallest and most vulnerable countries.
Kenya played a central role in that effort. And I have to thank unequivocally everybody that participated in this. To start with Ambassador Amina Mohamed and her team, including Ambassador Nelson who was there in Bali. We have to thank the Ambassador now in Geneva, John Kakonge, who is also helping significantly with the efforts to implement the Bali Package — as now we have to put into practice the things that we agreed.
I also have to thank President Kenyatta. We had an extremely productive conversation this morning which makes me think that this has to be the first of many visits of mine or the WTO representatives to Kenya and to the region.
Kenya played, like I said, a very crucial role in ensuring that the conditions that were necessary to strike a deal in Bali were present.
The success of Bali demonstrated, for the first time, that the WTO can truly deliver multilaterally negotiated outcomes.
It was the first deal of the sort since the organization was created in 1995, and it has given the WTO a new life, and a new perspective
But it also evidenced a new dynamic within the WTO. Africa made its voice heard loud and clear during the negotiations — and the outcomes of the deal reflect that.
I didn’t just come here to thank you for your help in Bali. I came here to make the case for going even further — to talk about our vision for the future of the WTO, the future for world trade and the future for Kenya.
I also came to stress how important this relationship is for both sides. The WTO clearly benefits from and needs Kenya as an increasingly central player in the organization. And, vice versa, I think that the WTO will be increasingly important for Kenya as well.
If you’ll forgive me, I’d like to offer an outsider’s perspective on Kenya’s economy.
Like any economy, of course there are challenges. The trade picture is a bit mixed in light of the latest figures. Merchandise exports were down 4% in 2013, while exports of commercial services rose by the same amount.
However, looking at the longer term, Kenya’s exports have grown steadily — recording an average of 5% growth a year since 2005.
The economy is growing strongly — with GDP growth forecast at 5.6% in 2014 — faster than global and regional average.
And of course this could be significantly more pending the much discussed rebasing of GDP figures to take into the account significant advances in communications, banking and manufacturing that you’ve seen over recent years.
The precedents set by Ghana and Nigeria’s rebasing have certainly got people talking about what this could mean in Kenya.
A 10% rise in per capita income would see Kenya cross the World Bank threshold into middle income status — just 10%
Higher GDP would also help lower the debt-to-GDP ratio, therefore making it easier to tap markets for investment in infrastructure — which is crucial for so many reasons, including supporting trade.
So on balance the picture is very positive.
And I think this economic performance is perhaps one factor behind the active and constructive leadership role you are taking at the WTO.
Kenya doesn’t negotiate alone in the WTO — but rather as part of some influential groupings.
Kenya has long been a prominent member of the Africa Group — taking a leading role at numerous critical junctures over the years.
And Kenya is currently the coordinator of the Africa-Caribbean-Pacific group.
This group has 60 members. That’s a pretty significant number — especially when you consider that the membership of the whole organization stands at 159.
So Kenya — in this leadership role — has great influence on what happens in Geneva.
You make a great contribution to the work of the WTO.
But as I said earlier, I think the WTO also serves Kenya as well.
Lower income countries have much greater influence in the WTO than they would in other types of arrangements, like the bilateral agreements that are taking place around the world.
This is firstly because in the WTO all voices are heard and all decisions are taken by consensus. And secondly it is because your strength is multiplied by speaking in unison with others who share your position.
Imagine for a moment that the WTO didn’t exist.
The bigger players would pursue bilateral arrangements — but others, especially those with still small developing markets, would definitely find themselves outside. The voices of the poor would not be heard. And their interests would certainly not be on the negotiating agenda.
The opportunity for Africa to negotiate would be seriously reduced — and the opportunity to put development back at the centre of the conversation would be lost. Instead it would be, frankly, about the survival of the strongest.
But thankfully we are not in this position. And for the first time in some years, the WTO is negotiating again.
Look at what members achieved together in Bali.
- Bali brought a deal on trade facilitation.
- It brought progress on agriculture
- It delivered a package to support LDCs.
- And it provided for a Monitoring Mechanism on special and differential treatment.
I think the Monitoring Mechanism is a very important step because it will increase the WTO’s responsiveness to the concerns of developing countries in how Special & Differential provisions are used and implemented in the organization
And let me just say a few words about Trade Facilitation.
By streamlining customs procedures this agreement could provide a major boost to the global economy as a whole — and, moreover, the majority of the benefits, according to the analysts and the economists, will accrue to developing countries.
The estimates vary but economists think this could lead to an expansion in developing country exports of up to 9.9% and the creation of up to 18 million jobs in developing economies. Of course that will depend on the full implementation of those agreements and on the homework that each of you will be doing.
Moreover, the Trade Facilitation agreement broke new ground for developing countries in the way it will be implemented. It’s not only about the substance; it is the way it’s going to be implemented.
For the first time in WTO history, implementation of the agreement will be directly linked to the capacity of the country to do so. This is unheard of. Previously in the WTO it was about giving a certain number of years — so everybody implements an agreement immediately and least-developed and developing countries just get a few more years. Nobody ever talked in the WTO about whether these countries would be, after that time, in a position where they had the capacity to implement.
So now, and for the first time, we have more than that. Not only will that country have to have the capacity to implement, but we will have to show that we gave help to those countries to implement. Those two things have to be there for the obligation to click into place. That has never happened before and it did not happen randomly. That happened because Africa was vocal. That happened because there were people who wanted to help you in that endeavour and because you showed the leadership that was necessary to get there.
There has been a lot of debate about this agreement. Some feared that developed countries might try to “grab Trade Facilitation and run”. I’m sure that’s not going to be the case. And I have been very vocal in speaking with donors to make sure you get the support promised in Bali in a timely and proper way.
- Kenya has already undertaken deep reforms on trade facilitation. Already today I have heard a lot about the efforts that you are undertaking in the context of the EAC and about the infrastructure summits which the President and the Minister just left to attend. I hope that I will be here to witness one of those. And I’m sure that the Bali package will help to consolidate and develop this progress.
- What we are talking about here at the end of the day is economic and social development — and it is undoubtedly complex. It involves a large number of polices, covering many areas of economics and politics. But despite this complexity it’s clear that a key component in the development policy mix is trade.
The smaller the economy, the more relevant trade becomes as a tool for economic growth, job creation and technological improvements.
The WTO system helps developing countries shape and negotiate an agenda that ensures balanced and development-orientated disciplines that can help you increase your share of trade and therefore the benefits that you reap.
One way of maximizing growth potential is by increasing your capacity to trade. Implementing the trade facilitation agreement will support this by improving facilities at the border — reducing costs and transit times.
And of course our Aid for Trade programme also supports capacity building.
Kenya is one of the largest recipients of Aid for trade funding in the WTO — supporting projects such as improved roads between Mombasa and Nairobi, links with Addis Ababa, or the Eastern Electricity Highway Project.
These are big ticket items, but smaller measures can have a real impact too. Simple steps such as coordinating the opening of border crossing posts across East Africa can make a big difference and I am very happy to hear that you are working intensively on that.
So building the capacity to trade is vital in increasing trade flows.
But another way to boost trade is to find new markets for your exports — and the best way to do this is through a new global trade deal.
Ministers instructed us in Bali that we must prepare, by December, a clearly defined work program to conclude, once and for all, the Doha Development Agenda.
Negotiations on the Doha agenda have been running since 2001 — that’s far too long. We can’t afford to wait any longer.
And there are some really important issues on the table
In my view, any engagement here will have to tackle the really tough areas upfront: as you know they include industrial goods, services, and — crucially — agriculture, which is a key item for many developing countries.
Some of these issues have not been seriously discussed since 2008. Well, I think the intermission is over. We have to go back to the table. Every time that I talk to people in Geneva, particularly after Bali, I see more believers than I did before and frankly if we make progress in these three areas, the rest will fall into place. I have no doubts about that — but if we don’t, then any progress that we make elsewhere it is going to be very, very limited.
And we can’t go back, in my view, to the positions and expectations we had back in 2008. That would be a clear recipe for disaster.
At that time in 2008 we could not agree on the texts proposed by the Negotiating Chairs. Therefore we can’t expect to get good, full, productive and conclusive engagement by just putting those texts back on the table with no flexibility. It is not going to happen. However, we have to use those texts as much as we can. I think it is very important that we learn from them and that we build on the work that we did for so many years.
Now I am being very honest with you. I am saying this simply because I care about the Doha Development Agenda.
I have been working on this since 2001 and I want it to come to a conclusion. Now it’s time to finish this and we can do it. It’s about being open, being creative, being flexible and being willing to do it.
I have travelled to numerous countries around the world in recent months and met many leaders, including President Kenyatta this morning — and the message I’m hearing is very positive.
Because of Bali people believe that we can do this. They say: “it looks like you guys are back in business!”
They see us really engaged, really trying to find a way forward. And I hope that you believe me when I say that every WTO member is ready to be creative, is ready to be open-minded, and is working hard to get outcomes in the short term.
We are all doing everything we can to move the process forward and draw up this work programme by the end of the year.
Once that is done, if we do have at the end of the year this programme that is detailed enough, that is specific enough, our aim should be nothing less than to complete the round — and to do it quickly.
I believe that your interests are best served by a strong WTO which is delivering multilaterally negotiated outcomes.
So we need to redouble our efforts and complete this work — both to implement the Bali package, and to build on the momentum that it has given us to complete the Doha Development Agenda.
Kenya will be a key player in all of this, maintaining and developing the leadership that has been so evident and so important in recent times.
I look forward to working closely with you over the next few months, and to the extent that I can, I will be helping you in any way I can both in the efforts of implementation but also in the conclusion of the Doha Development Agenda
Thank you.
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