ESTUDIOS Y ANÁLISIS: DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO

Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade

This paper studies the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade for a sample of 149 exporters at the HS6 digit level. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the gap between binding tariff commitments under trade agreements (multilateral and regional agreements) and applied tariffs- what is also known as tariffs’ water.

Our results show that trade policy uncertainty is an important barrier to export. On average the elimination of water increases the probability of exporting by 12 percent. A one percent decrease of water also increases export volumes by one percent. We also find that the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty is higher for countries with low quality of institutions and in the presence of global value chains. Finally, our findings show that on average trade policy uncertainty is equivalent to a level of tariffs between 1.7 and 8.7 percentage points.

 

N°: ERSD-2015-05

Autores: Alberto Osnago, Roberta Piermartini and Nadia Rocha

Fecha de redacción: mayo de 2014

Palabras clave:

Binding overhang, tariffs, policy space, non-tariff barriers, World Trade Organization

Código JEL:

F10, F13, F14

volver al principio

Declinación de responsabilidad 

Este es un documento de trabajo y se refiere, por consiguiente, a un estudio en curso. Refleja las opiniones de sus autores. No pretende reflejar la posición o las opiniones de la OMC o de sus Miembros y se entiende sin perjuicio de los derechos y obligaciones de los Miembros en el marco de la OMC. Los errores que puedan existir son responsabilidad de los autores.

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