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However a marked slow-down in overall economic growth that began in the second
half of 2004 is likely to decelerate world merchandise trade growth from 9% in
2004 to 6.5% in 2005, WTO economists say.
“As trade continues to play a growing role in economic activity, it is
increasingly important for development and poverty alleviation. An ever-growing
number of countries are both trading more and participating more actively in
setting the trading rules.” said Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi.
“Africa’s exports, for example, grew by an impressive 30% last year, after
rising strongly in 2003. Attributable in significant measure to commodity price
rises, this marks the highest growth in African exports since 1980. This trade
growth has been associated with an improved expansion in production, which
registered more than 4% growth for the continent in 2004. Forecasters predict a
comparable growth rate in 2005,” he said.
“It is through trade that countries can chart a path towards sustainable
development and a higher standard of living. While the trend is encouraging,
trade expansion is still hampered by barriers, which must be brought down. These
barriers exist in all WTO members and are a drag on economic growth. The best
way to reduce these barriers and to ensure more equitable trading rules for all
nations is to complete the Doha Development Agenda round of trade negotiations,”
Dr Supachai said.
Highlights: major trade developments in 2004
A surprisingly strong global economy boosted real
world merchandise trade growth in 2004, despite record high crude oil
prices. The rate of trade expansion was close to 10% at mid-year, but
decelerated in the second half in line with weaker global GDP growth.
Nominal merchandise trade growth (21%) was the
highest in 25 years due to a combination of strong real trade growth (9%) and a
sharp increase in dollar prices (11%).
In 2004, the dollar value of world trade in commercial services increased by
16%. The expansion of services trade was stimulated by strong recovery in
transportation and travel services.
Commodity prices again increased faster than prices of manufactured goods in
2004. Prices for fuels and metals expanded by more than 30%, according to the IMF commodity price index. Prices for beverages and textile fibres, however,
were much weaker, recording only a marginal increase in 2004.
Price developments largely determined the value of merchandise trade growth by
region. The regions/countries with a large share of fuels in their merchandise
exports recorded above average export growth in 2004 — that is, the Middle East,
Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In the case of the CIS,
very strong economic growth also contributed to a recovery of CIS trade inside
the group.
Asia’s merchandise trade growth was sustained by strong US import demand, and
intra-Asian trade, stoked by a recovery in electronics trade. In 2004, China
became the largest merchandise trader in Asia, and the third largest exporter
and importer in world merchandise trade.
North America recorded the weakest growth in nominal merchandise exports and
imports of all regions in 2004. North America is the only one of the seven major
regions distinguished in this report which recorded a trade deficit on a f.o.b.-f.o.b.
basis in 2004. The United States alone had a merchandise trade deficit of $618
billion (f.o.b.-f.o.b.), equivalent to a record 6% of US GDP, and also to 7% of
world merchandise trade.
The enlargement of the European Union to 25 members in May 2004 stimulated trade
between the new and the old members of the European Union. Including
intra-trade, the enlarged European Union accounted for 42% of world merchandise
exports and for 52% of world commercial services exports in 2004.
Europe was the only region for which the growth in the dollar value of
merchandise and services trade did not exceed the previous year’s level, but
this was due entirely to exchange rate movements. Measured in euros, Europe’s
merchandise and commercial services exports (and imports) rose faster in 2004
than in 2003.
Higher oil prices improved the terms of trade of developing countries as a
group, and in particular those of the developing regions of the Middle East,
Africa and Latin America. Strong commodity prices and the recovery in the trade
of office and telecom equipment resulted in a sharp increase in the merchandise
exports from developing economies. The share of the developing economies in
world merchandise exports was 31% in 2004 — the highest level since 1950.
Trade and output: 2004 expansion above the
long-term growth trend
The world economy grew at 4% in 2004, the strongest
annual growth rate in more than a decade. Global GDP last year was also more
broadly based regionally than in the three preceding years, providing a solid
foundation for an acceleration in world trade growth. World merchandise trade
rose by 9% in real terms in 2004, the best annual performance since 2000, and
more than twice as fast as world output (GDP measured at market rates) in 2004.
Trade growth in 2004 also significantly exceeded average trade growth recorded
over the last decade (see Chart 1 and Table 1).
Chart 1
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 1994-04
(Annual percentage change)
Source: WTO
At 7% and 8% respectively, developing Asia and the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries continued to report the
strongest regional GDP growth worldwide. South America recorded GDP growth of
6%, which represented not only the strongest improvement against the preceding
year among regions, but also the highest growth rate since 1986. Africa and the
Middle East registered GDP growth of approximately 4% in 2004. This was faster
than in the 1990s, and about the same rate as the global economy. North
America’s growth strengthened to 4.3%, exceeding its expansion rate in the last
two decades, which averaged slightly above 3%. Economic activity picked up in
Europe and Japan, but growth remained at 2.3% and 2.6% respectively in 2004,
which was much weaker than the performance of all other regions. The weakness of
European growth was concentrated in the euro area, which recorded GDP growth of
only 2% (1).
Per capita income increases do not necessarily reduce
unemployment rates nor poverty. However, the strength of the economic expansion
improved the employment situation in North and South America, in the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and in Asia in 2004. Among the major
developed countries, unemployment levels decreased in Australia, the United
Kingdom, the United States and Japan, but stagnated at high levels in the euro
area (2). According to the
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), urban
unemployment decreased overall in Latin America, as the high unemployment rates
prevailing in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela were significantly
reduced in 2004 (3).
Table 1
World trade and output developments, 2001-04
(At constant prices, annual percentage change)
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
|
Merchandise exports |
–0.5 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
9.0 |
|
Merchandise production |
–0.7 |
0.8 |
2.8 |
… |
|
GDP at market exchange rates |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
4.0 |
|
GDP at PPP |
2.4 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
5.0 |
Sources: WTO, IMF, World Economic Outlook
Monetary and fiscal policies continued to accommodate
the recovery in most regions. Real interest rates remained very low and public
deficits remained relatively large in the major economies. However, fiscal
deficits did not widen further in 2004. Stock markets recovered markedly in the
course of the year (4).
The moderate increase in global foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows in 2004, after a steep fall over three years, also
suggests improved business confidence in the state of the world economy (5).
The United States, a number of Asian developing countries, and also some Latin
American and Caribbean countries were the principal beneficiaries of the
increase in global FDI flows. Despite the recent recovery in FDI flows, the 2004
level of some $600 billion was less than half the peak level recorded in 2000
and still below the level reached in 1998. One of the new developments in global
FDI flows was the emergence of China as an investor in natural resources in a
number of developing countries (6). Total capital
flows to emerging developing markets outside Europe increased in 2004, according
to estimates made by the Institute of International Finance (7).
Increased net FDI inflows and private lending, together with a decrease in net
official outflows, contributed to the marked rise of foreign exchange reserves
in these economies.
Domestic inflation picked up moderately in the course of 2004, under the impact
of strengthened economic activity and the increase in world fuel prices. The
repercussions of higher oil prices on the domestic price level was attenuated in
many countries by a currency appreciation vis-à-vis the US dollar, and in some
cases by government measures, including price controls for petroleum products
sold in local markets. Dollar prices of internationally traded goods increased
by 11% in 2004. The overall increase in commodity prices by about 25% conceals
wide differences among various product groups. Prices of fuels and metals
recorded a marked increase in the course of 2004, lifting their average annual
prices by 31% and 36% respectively. Rising global demand, combined with a
decline in readily available reserves and the absence of excess production
capacity, provided the basis for stronger oil prices (8).
Unexpectedly strong demand from China in the course of the year, geopolitical
tensions, and temporary selective transportation bottlenecks provoked large
variations in monthly price developments (9). Nominal
oil prices reached $55 per barrel in November, a record monthly level. The
annual average crude oil price rose to $36 per barrel in 2004, and matched the
previous historic peak level of 1980. Deflated by the world merchandise export
price index (base year 2000), the “real” oil price stood at $30 in 2004, double
the level of 1995, and the highest level since 1985 (10)
(see Chart 2).
Chart 2
Crude petroleum price developments, 1970-04
US$/barrel
Note: Real price is obtained by
deflating the nominal IMF crude oil spot price by the WTO world export unit
value index (2000=100).
Prices of agricultural raw materials and beverages,
however, rose by only 3–6% while food prices went up by 14%. Prices of
manufactured goods are estimated to have risen by 8.5% on average in 2004. There
were marked differences in the price developments of manufactured goods, not
only regionally but also by product categories. Dollar prices in countries with
an appreciating currency have recorded a much faster price increase in their
exports of manufactured goods than those with a stable exchange rate vis-à-vis
the US dollar. As regards relative price developments of the different product
groups, it can be observed that the prices for iron and steel products surged,
while those of computer and telecom equipment decreased. For iron and steel,
strong global demand from the construction and investment goods industries,
together with sharply higher prices of ores used as inputs, caused the steep
price increase. For computer and telecom equipment, productivity gains and
capacity expansion more than offset higher demand. Exports of chemicals, in
particular organic chemicals and plastics, recorded price increases which
exceeded those of all manufactured goods.
Prices, exchange rates and demand developments have all influenced global trade
flows measured in dollar terms during the year. Higher oil and metal prices
sharply increased the share of fuels, metals and iron and steel in world
merchandise exports, to a new cyclical peak level. The Middle East, Africa and
the CIS member countries are large net exporters of fuels and metals, and their
share in world merchandise trade recovered further in 2004, largely due to these
price developments. As developing Asia and South America also recorded
merchandise export growth in excess of 25% in 2004, the share of the developing
economies in world exports reached 31%, their highest level since 1950.
The strength of developing Asia’s merchandise exports can be attributed partly
to recovery in the electronic goods sector (11).
Global shipments of digital cameras, mobile phones, semiconductors and personal
computers expanded at double digit rates. For five Asian economies, office and
telecom equipment accounted for between one-third and two-thirds of their
exports in 2004, and played an important part in their export expansion (12).
Chart 3
Dollar changes vis-à-vis European and Asian currencies (a),
2001–04
(Indices Jan 2001=100)
(a) Currency baskets
weighted by trade values. European currencies are those of Euro Area, the UK,
Switzerland Sweden, Norway, Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovak Rep. The Asian currencies are those of
Japan, China, Rep of Korea, Chinese Taipei, Singapore and Hong Kong, China
Source: WTO
Exchange rate developments contributed strongly to the
nominal trade growth in Europe in 2004 although less than in 2003. The annual
average depreciation of the US dollar against a basket of European currencies
was 9% in 2004, which was much stronger than against a basket of Asian
currencies (see Chart 3).
Real merchandise trade developments in 2004
The Asian region recorded the highest volume of real
merchandise export growth in 2004, at 14.5%. China, the Republic of Korea and
Singapore recorded rates in excess of 20%. Japan’s real merchandise exports rose
by 11%, somewhat faster than world trade. Asia’s merchandise import growth rose
14.5% in 2004, an acceleration in comparison to the preceding year. At a
regional level, merchandise import growth accelerated and matched the export
expansion but at the country level large differences in export and import growth
could be observed. Japan and the Republic of Korea report a markedly larger real
export growth than import growth in 2004 while all other Asian economies
combined expanded their imports in constant prices faster than their exports.
Linked to its economic recovery, South America’s real merchandise trade
rebounded vigorously in 2004. Real imports expanded nowhere faster than in this
region. However, a number of economies in Central America and the Caribbean did
not participate in this outstanding trade expansion, which was largely shaped by
the region’s major traders. Real merchandise imports in South America grew by
18.5%, which was twice as fast as world trade in 2004. Argentine and Venezuelan
imports recovered dramatically, rising by at least 50%, while those of Brazil
and Chile expanded by 20%. The region’s export growth fell short of its import
expansion, largely due to the sluggishness of exports from major traders such as
Argentina and Colombia, and the incomplete recovery of shipments from Venezuela.
Merchandise trade growth in the smaller economies of Central America and the
Caribbean remained well below the regional average for both exports and imports.
Africa’s trade grew strongly in 2004. Exports grew by some 6% and imports by
approximately 11% in real terms. Real export growth was about the same as in
2003 and much higher than in 2001 and 2002. On the import side, however, real
growth in 2004 was considerably higher than in previous recent years. Nominal
growth in African exports was, of course, dramatically higher in 2004 than in
previous years because of oil price rises.
Merchandise exports and imports of the CIS continued to rise in real terms at a
pace considerably faster than world trade. Benefiting from sharply higher world
market prices for fuels and metals, which contributed to a sharp rise in export
earnings, real imports of the CIS continued to expand, exceeding world trade
growth for the fourth consecutive year. The region’s real exports are estimated
to have also expanded faster than global trade, although somewhat less rapidly
than in the preceding year.
North America’s export recovery, which started in 2003, gained momentum in 2004.
Rising by 7.5%, the region’s exports again exceeded their previous peak level in
2000. Import growth accelerated by 10%, thereby continuing to exceed the
region’s export growth. Mexico’s import growth rebounded strongly and nearly
matched the regional average while its exports recovered only moderately,
remaining below their 2000 level. The development of Canada’s merchandise trade
contrasted with that of the United States and Mexico as Canada’s exports
expanded faster than imports in 2004.
The pick-up in Europe’s merchandise trade played an important part in the
recovery of world merchandise trade, as the region accounts for about 46% of
global trade (exports and imports of merchandise and commercial services
combined). Europe nevertheless recorded the lowest real merchandise import
growth rate among all regions, a reflection of weak demand growth. Exports
expanded faster than regional imports, but much less than global trade (see
Chart 4).
The trade performance of individual European countries showed considerable
variation, but a broad pattern can be discerned for European trade developments
in 2004. Countries at the eastern border of the region reported the highest
export and import growth, even exceeding the world average. The countries
situated at the centre of the region recorded trade growth exceeding the
regional average (exports and imports combined), while those situated at the
western border of Europe experienced trade growth below the regional average.
Chart 4
Real merchandise trade growth by region, 2004
(Annual percentage change)
Source: WTO
The first group of countries comprises new EU member
states such as the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, the Slovak
Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, as well as the EU candidates, Romania and
Bulgaria. The second group includes Germany, Sweden, the Benelux countries and
Austria, which all reported more dynamic export than import growth in 2004. In
the third group of countries, real merchandise export growth was weak (about 3%
in France, Ireland and Spain), stagnated (United Kingdom) or declined
(Portugal). And although real merchandise import growth in this third group was
stronger than for their exports, it remained below European average trade growth
in 2004. Domestic demand growth was weaker in the second group than in the
third, which contributed to the relatively dynamic performance of exports in the
central European group, and the relatively stronger performance of imports in
the west European group.
But why did total trade (both exports and imports) expand more rapidly in the
second than in the third group? And what could explain high trade growth in the
eastern part of Europe? It seems that several factors played a role in this
outcome. First, the enlargement process to the east of the European Union is
fostering an integration process above all between the eastern and central part
of Europe, resulting in a sharp rise in intra-industry exchanges (e.g.
automobiles). Second, at the date of joining, some remaining barriers to
merchandise trade between the old and new members were removed (e.g. in
particular in the agricultural sector), leading to an additional boost to trade
flows in 2004. Third, the trade of southeast Europe has benefited from lower
trade barriers within the region in recent years, thanks to the Stability Pact
for South East Europe, with its extensive network of 28 bilateral free trade
agreements. In some cases, the EU enlargement also provided improved access to
the markets of the new EU member states for countries in southeast Europe.
Fourth, eastern and central European countries benefited from vigorous import
demand in the CIS, perhaps more so than western European countries, given
historical trade ties (13).
Nominal merchandise and commercial services trade developments in 2004
In 2004, the value of world merchandise trade rose by
21%, to $8.88 trillion, and that of world commercial services trade by 16%, to
$2.10 trillion (14). For both merchandise and
commercial services trade this represented an acceleration of growth for the
third year in a row, and the strongest rise since 2000. A particular feature of
nominal trade growth in 2004 was the fact that one major merchandise product —
fuels — and one major services category — transportation — recorded an
exceptionally strong performance in 2004. These two sectors have lagged well
behind overall trade growth during the last two decades. In both cases,
relatively strong prices contributed significantly to this outcome (see
Table 2). The rebound in international tourism, particularly pronounced in Asia,
led to a marked increase in global travel receipts (15).
Table 2
World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 2001–04
(Billion dollars and percentage)
|
|
Value |
Annual percentage change |
|
|
2004 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
|
Merchandise |
8 880 |
–4 |
5 |
17 |
21 |
|
Commercial services |
2 100 |
0 |
7 |
13 |
16 |
Source: WTO
Price developments largely explain the differences in
merchandise trade developments by region in 2004. Primary products and fuels are
prominent in the merchandise export structure of Africa, the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS), the Middle East and South America. The strength of
global demand for fuels and metals, combined with substantial price increases,
boosted the merchandise exports of these regions, with annual growth ranging
from 26% (Middle East) to 35% (CIS). Despite this exceptionally strong increase,
the combined share of these four regions in world merchandise trade amounted
only to 13% in 2004. All four regions are net exporters of fuels, which
contributed to the fact that their merchandise exports expanded faster than
their merchandise imports and that their merchandise trade surplus widened
further in 2004.
However, the strength in export earnings also stimulated import growth, which in
each region is estimated to have grown faster than world merchandise trade.
Asia, Europe and North America are all net importers of fuels and recorded an
excess of import growth over export growth in dollar terms in 2004. Merchandise
exports of the Asian region expanded by 25% and thereby slightly less than
imports, but still faster than global trade and faster than in the preceding
year. Merchandise exports of Europe and North America were the least dynamic of
all regions, expanding in dollar terms by 19% and 14% respectively. North
America’s merchandise exports and imports rose faster than in the preceding
year. No acceleration in the nominal trade growth could be observed for Europe’s
exports and imports in 2004, which expanded slightly less than the global
average (see Table 3).
As already noted, European trade flows measured in dollar terms were strongly
affected by the rapid appreciation of European currencies. Measured by a
trade-weighted basket of European currencies the dollar depreciated on average
by 9% in 2004 and by 14% in 2003. Consequently, the “inflationary” impact of the
exchange rate developments on Europe’s dollar trade values was less pronounced
in 2004 than in 2003. Measured in euro terms, Europe’s merchandise and
commercial services exports rose by 8.2% and 5.4% respectively in 2004, a
markedly better performance than the small decrease reported in 2003 (see
Chart
5). A detailed breakdown of merchandise trade by region is provided
in Appendix Table 1.
Table 3
World merchandise trade by major region, 2001-04
(Billion dollars and percentage)
|
|
Exports |
Imports |
|
|
Value |
Annual percentage change |
Value |
Annual percentage change |
|
|
2004 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2004 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
|
World |
8 880 |
–4 |
5 |
17 |
21 |
9 215 |
–4 |
4 |
16 |
21 |
|
North America |
1 330 |
–6 |
–4 |
5 |
14 |
2 010 |
–6 |
2 |
7 |
16 |
|
United States |
819 |
–6 |
–5 |
4 |
13 |
1 526 |
–6 |
2 |
8 |
17 |
|
South and
Central America (a) |
272 |
–3 |
0 |
13 |
28 |
238 |
–1 |
–13 |
5 |
27 |
|
Europe |
4 024 |
1 |
7 |
19 |
19 |
4 133 |
–2 |
5 |
20 |
20 |
|
European Union (25) |
3 708 |
1 |
7 |
19 |
19 |
3 784 |
–1 |
5 |
20 |
19 |
|
CIS |
263 |
0 |
5 |
27 |
35 |
171 |
16 |
9 |
27 |
31 |
|
Africa |
228 |
–6 |
3 |
23 |
30 |
207 |
4 |
1 |
22 |
25 |
|
Middle East |
379 |
–11 |
5 |
21 |
26 |
243 |
6 |
4 |
13 |
23 |
|
Asia |
2 385 |
–9 |
8 |
18 |
25 |
2 214 |
–7 |
6 |
19 |
27 |
|
China |
593 |
7 |
22 |
35 |
35 |
561 |
8 |
21 |
40 |
36 |
|
Japan |
565 |
–16 |
3 |
13 |
20 |
455 |
–8 |
–3 |
14 |
19 |
(a) Includes the Caribbean
Source: WTO
On a country level, one notices that a large number of
countries which export primarily fuels and other mining products recorded export
increases between one third and about one half — for example, Chile (52%),
Kazakhstan (54%), Nigeria (57%) — while only a few countries recorded a decline
in their merchandise exports. The latter outcome is attributable either to
political instability (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire) or natural disasters (e.g.
hurricane-affected Caribbean economies).
Among the 30 leading merchandise exporters, China replaced Japan as the third
largest exporter. The Russian Federation moved ahead of Chinese Taipei and
Singapore, and became the world’s fourteenth largest exporter. China and the
Russian Federation both expanded their exports by more than one third in 2004.
Poland, a new entrant to this list, recorded the highest export growth among the
top 30 merchandise exporters. Exports of the Republic of Korea increased by 31%,
making the country the twelfth largest exporter in the world. Among the top 30
importers in 2004, Turkey reported the strongest import increase and moved up
three places (see Appendix Table 3).
Commercial services trade growth by region differed less than merchandise trade
across regions in 2004. It is estimated that above global average growth was
experienced in the CIS and Asia (for both exports and imports), while in North
and South America commercial services trade was less dynamic than world trade.
However, in all four regions the growth in the dollar value in 2004 exceeded
that in 2003, for both exports and imports. In Europe, the world’s largest
services trader, however, exports and imports of commercial services expanded
less rapidly in 2004 than in the preceding year. A detailed breakdown of world
commercial services by region is provided in Appendix Table 2.
Chart 5
Europe’s merchandise and commercial services exports, 2002-04
(Percentage changes)
Information (albeit incomplete) on commercial services
trade by country in 2004 points to faster growth in commercial services trade in
the Asian economies than in North American or European economies. The services
exports and imports of the United States rose somewhat less rapidly than world
services trade, but the United States remained the world’s largest exporter and
importer of commercial services. Partly due to a revision of its Balance of
Payments statistics in 2003, Japan is now ranked as the fifth largest exporter
of commercial services, moving ahead of Italy and Spain. Although Japan’s
commercial services imports rose faster than world services trade in 2004, Japan
continued to be the fourth largest importer. The Republic of Korea gained two
positions among the exporters and importers of commercial services in 2004.
Among the major European traders, the United Kingdom recorded the strongest
export growth, thereby confirming its position as Europe’s leading services
exporter. Although German services exports and imports rose less rapidly than
world commercial services trade, Germany kept its position as the world’s second
largest services importer and the third largest exporter in 2004 (see
Appendix
Table 5).
Trade Prospects for 2005
The world trade expansion started to lose momentum in
the second half of 2004. In the second quarter, trade in goods and services in
the OECD countries expanded at an annual rate of 12%, but this fell to 6% in the
third quarter and 4% in the fourth quarter (see Chart 6). In the last
six months of 2004, economic growth slowed down markedly in Europe and Japan,
while in the United States and a number of large developing economies (e.g.
China and Brazil), GDP growth remained vigorous. At the global level, these
diverging developments resulted in a weakening of economic activity. For 2005,
the global economy is projected to follow a more moderate growth path, and
expand by about 3% to 3.5%. Growth in the euro area and Japan, is predicted to
weaken further, partly due to the projected reduction of their external surplus.
For the United States and China, projections suggest that a deceleration of
investment growth will be a major factor in a moderate slowdown in GDP growth.
Compared to 2004, real interest rates are expected to be higher in the developed
markets and the impact of higher energy costs worldwide is expected to
contribute to some weakness in the global economy. Changes in global gross
domestic product (GDP) growth typically lead to even larger changes in global
trade growth and, if expected weakening in the information and telecom equipment
sectors turns out to be as pronounced as projected, then the deceleration in
trade could be more pronounced than in a “normal” slowdown due to the prominent
share of the latter sectors in international merchandise trade. Import demand in
the CIS, the Middle East, Africa and Central and South America is expected to
remain relatively strong and attenuate somewhat the global trade deceleration.
Chart 6
Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries,
2003-04
Source: OECD, Olisnet.
The marked real effective appreciation of the yen and
many European currencies since 2002 is likely to add slack to export performance
in Japan and parts of Europe in 2005. Despite the depreciation of the United
States dollar vis-à-vis the yen, the Canadian dollar, the euro and other
European currencies, US imports continued to expand faster than exports up to
the fourth quarter of 2004. However, for 2005 the accumulated strong real
effective depreciation of the US dollar is projected to weaken import growth and
strengthen export growth. Summing up these diverse developments, world
merchandise trade growth is projected to decelerate from 9% in 2004 to 6.5% in
2005.
Appendix Table 1
World merchandise trade by region and selected
country, 2004
(Billion dollars and percentage)
|
|
Exports |
Imports |
|
|
Value |
Annual percentage change |
Value |
Annual
percentage change |
|
|
2004 |
1995–00 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2004 |
1995–00 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
|
World |
8880 |
5 |
–4 |
5 |
17 |
21 |
9215 |
5 |
–4 |
4 |
16 |
21 |
|
North America |
1330 |
7 |
–6 |
–4 |
5 |
14 |
2010 |
11 |
–6 |
2 |
7 |
16 |
|
United States |
819 |
6 |
–6 |
–5 |
4 |
13 |
1526 |
10 |
–6 |
2 |
8 |
17 |
|
Canada |
322 |
8 |
–6 |
–3 |
8 |
18 |
276 |
8 |
–7 |
0 |
8 |
13 |
|
Mexico |
189 |
16 |
–5 |
1 |
3 |
14 |
206 |
19 |
–4 |
0 |
1 |
16 |
|
South and Central America (a) |
272 |
5 |
–3 |
0 |
13 |
28 |
238 |
3 |
–1 |
–13 |
5 |
27 |
|
Brazil |
96 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
21 |
32 |
66 |
2 |
0 |
–15 |
2 |
30 |
|
Other South and Central America
(a) |
175 |
6 |
–7 |
–1 |
9 |
26 |
172 |
4 |
–1 |
–12 |
6 |
25 |
|
Europe |
4024 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
19 |
19 |
4133 |
4 |
–2 |
5 |
20 |
20 |
|
European Union (25) |
3708 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
19 |
19 |
3784 |
4 |
–1 |
5 |
20 |
19 |
|
Germany |
915 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
22 |
22 |
717 |
1 |
–2 |
1 |
23 |
19 |
|
France |
451 |
2 |
–1 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
464 |
3 |
–3 |
0 |
21 |
16 |
|
United Kingdom |
346 |
4 |
–4 |
3 |
9 |
13 |
462 |
5 |
–3 |
4 |
13 |
18 |
|
Italy |
346 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
18 |
16 |
349 |
3 |
–1 |
5 |
20 |
17 |
|
Other Western Europe |
204 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
14 |
19 |
165 |
1 |
–1 |
2 |
15 |
18 |
|
Switzerland |
118 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
18 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
–1 |
15 |
16 |
|
South–East Europe |
112 |
5 |
10 |
15 |
29 |
32 |
183 |
8 |
–8 |
20 |
32 |
36 |
|
CIS |
263 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
27 |
35 |
171 |
–3 |
16 |
9 |
27 |
31 |
|
Russian Federation |
183 |
5 |
–2 |
4 |
27 |
35 |
95 |
–6 |
20 |
12 |
23 |
28 |
|
Africa |
228 |
6 |
–6 |
3 |
23 |
31 |
207 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
22 |
25 |
|
South Africa |
46 |
1 |
–2 |
2 |
23 |
26 |
55 |
–1 |
–5 |
4 |
40 |
34 |
|
Africaless South Africa |
183 |
7 |
–7 |
3 |
23 |
32 |
152 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
16 |
22 |
|
Oil exporters (b)
|
113 |
12 |
–13 |
1 |
27 |
41 |
52 |
0 |
20 |
–5 |
21 |
32 |
|
Non oil exporters |
69 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
18 |
19 |
100 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
14 |
18 |
|
Middle East |
379 |
12 |
–11 |
5 |
21 |
26 |
243 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
13 |
23 |
|
Asia |
2385 |
5 |
–9 |
8 |
18 |
25 |
2214 |
3 |
–7 |
6 |
19 |
27 |
|
Japan |
565 |
2 |
–16 |
3 |
13 |
20 |
455 |
2 |
–8 |
–3 |
14 |
19 |
|
China |
593 |
11 |
7 |
22 |
35 |
35 |
561 |
11 |
8 |
21 |
40 |
36 |
|
Four East Asian traders (c)
|
637 |
5 |
–14 |
5 |
15 |
26 |
586 |
2 |
–16 |
3 |
13 |
28 |
|
India |
73 |
7 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
27 |
95 |
8 |
–2 |
12 |
26 |
34 |
|
Memorandum items: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MERCOSUR (4) |
135 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
19 |
28 |
94 |
2 |
–6 |
–26 |
10 |
37 |
|
ASEAN (10) |
550 |
6 |
–10 |
5 |
12 |
20 |
491 |
1 |
–8 |
4 |
10 |
26 |
|
EU (25) extra–trade |
1203 |
– |
1 |
6 |
17 |
20 |
1279 |
– |
–4 |
1 |
19 |
20 |
|
EU (15) |
3447 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
19 |
18 |
3485 |
3 |
–2 |
4 |
20 |
18 |
|
EU (new members, 10) |
260 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
29 |
32 |
299 |
9 |
6 |
11 |
26 |
28 |
|
Developing economies |
2780 |
8 |
–7 |
7 |
18 |
26 |
2523 |
5 |
–4 |
4 |
16 |
27 |
|
Developing Asia |
1712 |
7 |
–7 |
10 |
20 |
27 |
1629 |
4 |
–7 |
9 |
21 |
30 |
(a) Includes the Caribbean.
(b) Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria,
Sudan.
(c) Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong China, Rep. of Korea, and Singapore.
Source: WTO.
Appendix Table 2
World trade of commercial services by region
and selected country, 2004
(Billion dollars and percentage)
|
|
Exports |
Imports |
|
|
Value |
Annual percentage change |
Value |
Annual percentage change |
|
|
2004 |
1995–00 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2004 |
1995–00 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
|
World |
2100 |
5 |
0 |
7 |
13 |
16 |
2081 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
16 |
|
North America |
380 |
7 |
–4 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
334 |
9 |
–1 |
3 |
9 |
13 |
|
United States |
319 |
7 |
–4 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
259 |
10 |
–1 |
2 |
8 |
13 |
|
Canada |
47 |
9 |
–3 |
4 |
5 |
12 |
56 |
6 |
–1 |
3 |
12 |
12 |
|
Mexico |
14 |
7 |
–7 |
–1 |
1 |
11 |
19 |
13 |
–1 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
|
South and Central America (a) |
55 |
6 |
–2 |
–3 |
9 |
15 |
57 |
4 |
0 |
–12 |
5 |
14 |
|
Brazil |
11 |
8 |
–3 |
1 |
9 |
20 |
16 |
3 |
2 |
–15 |
8 |
12 |
|
Other South and Central America (a) |
44 |
6 |
–2 |
–4 |
9 |
13 |
41 |
4 |
0 |
–10 |
4 |
15 |
|
Europe |
1114 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
19 |
16 |
1019 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
19 |
14 |
|
European Union (25) |
1005 |
4 |
4 |
9 |
18 |
16 |
948 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
19 |
14 |
|
Germany |
126 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
18 |
9 |
191 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
18 |
11 |
|
United Kingdom |
169 |
9 |
–1 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
135 |
9 |
0 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
|
France |
108 |
–1 |
2 |
5 |
15 |
10 |
95 |
–1 |
3 |
11 |
22 |
13 |
|
Italy |
85 |
–2 |
2 |
4 |
18 |
21 |
80 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
20 |
9 |
|
Other Western Europe |
64 |
3 |
–3 |
9 |
15 |
15 |
46 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
15 |
|
Switzerland |
37 |
2 |
–6 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
21 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
|
South–East Europe |
44 |
8 |
–11 |
1 |
35 |
21 |
24 |
9 |
–12 |
8 |
26 |
30 |
|
CIS |
32 |
2 |
13 |
20 |
16 |
22 |
49 |
0 |
24 |
16 |
15 |
27 |
|
Russian Federation |
20 |
–2 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
25 |
34 |
–4 |
23 |
15 |
16 |
27 |
|
Africa |
47 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
22 |
54 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
13 |
19 |
|
South Africa |
8 |
2 |
–7 |
1 |
40 |
24 |
9 |
0 |
–9 |
2 |
40 |
24 |
|
Middle East |
36 |
10 |
–5 |
–2 |
11 |
18 |
66 |
5 |
–2 |
1 |
22 |
17 |
|
Asia |
436 |
3 |
–1 |
8 |
9 |
21 |
501 |
2 |
–2 |
4 |
8 |
22 |
|
Japan |
94 |
1 |
–6 |
2 |
8 |
23 |
| |
