Great expectations: Quantifying the potential economic impact of the WTO agreement on E-Commerce

Immediate adoption of the AoE by the 71 economies that currently support its incorporation is projected to raise their GDP by 0.43% and trade by 0.97% with global GDP increasing by 0.14% and global trade by 0.58%. For each year that the implementation is delayed, USD 159 billion is being left on the table (cumulative USD 2.4 trillion until 2040). The quantitative analysis also indicates that if the AoE were to be extended to all WTO Member States, the global economic benefits would nearly quadruple from a 0.14% to a 0.51% increase in GDP and a 2.3% increase in global trade, or USD 8.7 trillion by 2040, mostly favouring low- and lower-middle-income economies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. As WTO Members continue to deliberate about how best to incorporate the AoE into the WTO architecture, the findings from this paper underscore the economic benefits of enacting the AoE and the importance of expanding participation as much as possible to maximise its development potential.

Staff Working Paper: Research ERSD-2025-06

Author: Eddy Bekkers , Javier López-González , and Roger So

Manuscript date: 24 September 2025

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models; Trade Policy; E-Commerce

JEL classification numbers: C68; F13; L81

 

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Disclaimer 

This is a working paper, and hence it represents research in progress. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. They do not represent the positions or opinions of the WTO or its Members and are without prejudice to Members' rights and obligations under the WTO. Any errors are attributable to the authors.

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