Through the looking glass: artificial intelligence, international trade, and economic growth in the long run

The reallocation of tasks from labour to AI services will generate productivity gains in the model, and AI will reduce operational trade costs. We build four scenarios that differ in how far less-prepared economies catch up. The simulations yield three main findings. First, AI adoption is projected to substantially boost global trade flows and economic growth: in the most favourable scenario, the diffusion of AI raises global GDP by an additional 13.2% over the next 15 years compared to the baseline. Global trade volumes are projected to be 35% larger than without AI. Second, low- and middle-income economies can capture more of these gains if they improve their digital infrastructure and ensure adequate AI deployment across the economy. Third, AI is projected to change the within-country income distribution. While all factors gain in real terms, returns shift toward capital and the skill premium declines. The magnitude of these distributional effects depends on the long-run growth rate of AI and the degree of complementarity between production factors.

Staff Working Paper: Research ERSD-2025-09

Author: Eddy Bekkers, Lee Humphreys, Hryhorii Kalachyhin, Karolina Wilczynskac and Danchen Zhao

Manuscript date: October 2025

Keywords:Artificial Intelligence, Computational general equilibrium, Productivity, Technology adoption, Trade Cost

JEL classification numbers: C68, E13, O33, O41, F17

 

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Disclaimer 

This is a working paper, and hence it represents research in progress. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. They do not represent the positions or opinions of the WTO or its Members and are without prejudice to Members' rights and obligations under the WTO. Any errors are attributable to the authors.

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