World Trade Outlook Indicator
The WTO has launched a new World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) designed to provide “real time” information on trends in global trade. The WTOI was unveiled in Shanghai, China on 8 July 2016, ahead of a meeting of G20 trade ministers.
Combining a variety of trade-related indices, the WTOI is designed to give an early signal of the current direction of world trade and where it is likely to go in the near future. In this way the WTOI should signal turning points in world merchandise trade volume. It complements existing tools such as the WTO’s longer-term trade forecasts, and other statistical releases.
The WTOI gives a headline figure to show performance against trend. A reading of 100 would indicate trade growth in line with recent trends, a reading greater than 100 would suggest above trend growth, while a reading below 100 indicates below trend growth. The WTOI will be updated on a quarterly basis.
Trade weakness to extend into second quarter, WTO indicator suggests